China heading for better-balanced, market-oriented reforms

LONDON - The latest reform agenda, policies implementation concerned, as well as the widening trading band of the renminbi against US dollar, are all signals that China is heading for a more-balanced and more market-oriented economic reforms, and the process is benefit the whole world, said experts in London Monday.

Benefit the whole world

China's economic slowdown is clearly bad news for some commodity exporters, but the world as a whole should actually benefit from slower but better-balanced growth in China, said Julian Jessop, Chief Global Economist at Capital Economics, in his analysis piece.

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The London-based economic research company attributes the recent lackluster economic data of China to seasonal impact of the Chinese New Year, when many factories shut down for the holiday.

Fears that the recent weaker data may be early indication of a "hard landing" are overdone, noted Jessop.

"A slowdown in China driven by a shift away from net exports towards consumption could in principle boost activity elsewhere. Meanwhile, any resulting weakness in commodity prices should be a net positive for the rest of the world," said Jessop.

"A controlled slowdown now should reduce the chances of a crash landing later. This is also the context in which to view the clampdown on shadow banking: better to allow a few defaults now than to see potential bad debts spiral out of control," he said.

Capital Economics expects China's GDP growth at or slightly above 7.5 percent in the first quarter of 2014.

Andrew Colquhoun, senior director of sovereign at Fitch Ratings, also said:" Chinese data are highly seasonal, and first quarter weakness is normal."

Though the January-February data show a slowdown, it was reflecting in part the previous monetary policy tightening, said Colquhoun in a research report.

"We think tighter monetary and credit conditions are aimed at reining in credit growth, particularly 'shadow banking' activities perceived as riskier for financial stability," said Colquhoun.

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