Business / Economy

When less might actually mean more

(China Daily) Updated: 2014-10-28 07:26

A1: We are forecasting real GDP growth of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent in 2014, which would be the slowest pace of annual expansion since 1990.

When less might actually mean more

Rahul Ghosh, senior research analyst at Moody's investors service

After a short-lived period of stability, a wide spectrum of economic data - ranging from industrial and electricity production growth to real estate investment growth - resumed downward trajectories in the second half of 2014.

A slowdown in credit uptake has continued to weigh on economic activity, and this is despite some targeted stimulus measures that were announced throughout the year.

A2: It is unlikely that China's economy will witness a marked turnaround in 2015. China is rated as Aa3 stable by Moody's. The growth slowdown will extend to 2015, given the persistent weak property sales. The sales weakness is partly due to significant oversupply in the real estate market as well as the government's pursuit of broader macroeconomic rebalancing.

A3: The authorities appear willing to tolerate slower growth as part of the broader economic rebalancing process and, as such, we do not expect a fresh round of large-scale credit injections.

Robust employment growth, which is a key policy objective, will also provide additional comfort for the government, despite slower economic activity.

The global demand backdrop will be little different in 2015 from this year, meaning that we are unlikely to see a sharp rebound in Chinese exports.

A4: China's ability to engineer a "stop-go" policy cycle will prevent an abrupt fall in economic growth. However, should economic growth weakness intensify, or the decline in property sales worsen, we expect the government to implement additional mini-stimulus measures, mostly on the fiscal side.

We also expect the central bank to inject additional liquidity to ensure a smooth downward adjustment in economic growth.

Such a scenario would provide a boost to economic activity, perhaps at the expense of more sustainable long-term growth.

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