A1: China's economy will not grow by 7.5 percent this year, but this should not be a cause for concern.
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Tom Rafferty, editor and economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit |
We think that growth for the year as a whole will be 7.3 percent. Growth in the fourth quarter will probably ease slightly as external demand weakens, notably in struggling Europe.
Growth in the third quarter was propped up by the external sector, as domestic demand weakened owing to problems in the property sector.
The economic record this year should make it clear that slower growth is not in itself a problem. China's labor market is changing, and there is less need to generate high levels of growth to absorb new entrants into the job market.
Slower growth this year has not seemingly compromised the stability of the labor market.
The more pressing challenge is implementing structural reforms that will help lay the foundation for long-term growth by reducing imbalances in the economy.
A2: Abolishing the GDP growth target altogether would be preferable. Setting a target creates unnecessary political pressure over attaining it and has often given rise to contradictory signals in economic policy.
A move by the government to lower its target to "about 7 percent" would be a positive sign. It would give the government greater room to manage its reform agenda and continue the task of reining in excessive levels of liquidity growth.
A3: Slowing growth accompanied by meaningful reforms will be good for China's economy. But a slowdown that is not accompanied by reform would spell trouble. The government's record in implementing the ambitious agenda it set out in late 2013 has so far been mixed. We have seen progress in some areas and a lack of details in others. The timetable for some major reforms also appears to have been pushed back.
A4: There are a lot of productivity gains to be squeezed out of China's economy, sufficient to deliver sustainable long-term GDP growth in the 4 percent to 6 percent range, but we are concerned that the current pace of implementing reforms is too slow.