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China Daily Website

GDP growth target for 2014 may be 7%, expert says

Updated: 2013-11-13 16:45
By Hu Yuanyuan ( chinadaily.com.cn)

The government could lower the growth target for the next year to 7 percent, an economist with ANZ Banking Group said in a research note on Wednesday.

According to Liu Ligang, chief Greater China economist at ANZ, the "comprehensive reform package" rolled out in the Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee is likely to weigh on China's economic growth over the next one to two years.

"We maintain our view that the Chinese authorities could lower the growth target for the next year to 7 percent," said Liu, adding he also found that growth historically slowed after a third plenum.

Although China's growth rate is expected to slow to around 7 percent in the next few years, it will not undermine the country's influence on the global economy, Liu added.

The renewed urbanization drive means that demand for housing, infrastructure, energy and agricultural products will continue to grow.

"We also see domestic consumption starting to play a more central role going forward. China's ordinary imports have increased significantly, and its demand will become more important to the rest of the world," said Liu.

Meanwhile, environmental concerns originating from over-reliance on coal imply that China will also become a major natural gas importer before the economy can master the technology on the renewable energy and nuclear energy, the research showed.