ADB projects China growth at 7% in 2009

(Agencies/Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-03-31 11:34

China's economic growth will slow to 7 percent in 2009 and will recover to 8 percent next year, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in its annual Asian Development Outlook released on Tuesday.

The bank sees Asia's growth down in 2009, while the forecast for 2010 was however contingent on a mild recovery in the global economy. This was far from certain, the Manila-based ADB said.

"There are tremendous downside risks to this global outlook," ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda said in the report.

"The effectiveness of the global responses to the crisis remains uncertain. Loud calls for protectionist policies are becoming worrisome. As job losses in the major industrialised countries continue, the protectionist voices may only get louder."

The ADB said Asia's developing economies, which include China, India, the economies of Southeast Asia, South Korea and Central Asia, should register average GDP growth of 3.4 percent this year, down from 6.3 percent in 2008.

China, the world's fastest growing major economy, will register growth of 7.0 percent this year, down from 9.0 percent in 2008, the ADB said. India should grow 5.0 percent in 2009 and 6.5 percent in 2010, it said.

It is the lowest ADB forecast for developing Asia since growth averaged only 0.2 percent in 1998.

The multilateral development bank said average growth in Asia could recover to 6.0 percent in 2010 if big industrialised nations pull out of recession.

"The concern for the region, and especially for the region's poor, is that it is not yet clear that the United States, European Union and Japan will recover as soon as next year," said the ADB's acting Chief Economist Jong-Wha Lee.

As late as December, the ADB had forecast that average growth in Asia would reach 5.8 percent in 2009. But it said: "The global downturn is having a pronounced impact on the region's exports and subdued domestic demand will further crimp growth."

The main effect of the slower growth will be a setback in poverty alleviation. In 2009 alone, the ADB said, the number of poor will be 62.3 million higher at 728.2 million because of the slowdown.

If growth had continued as in 2007 and 2008, the number of poor in developing Asia would have been 665.9 million, based on a daily allowance of $1.25.

This crisis has highlighted the need for developing nations in Asia to rebalance growth and avoid over-reliance on export-driven expansion, the ADB added.

"The pronounced impact of the current global downturn on developing Asia's growth underlines the risk of excessive dependence on external demand," it said.

"A wide range of government policies, ranging from boosting domestic consumption to promoting more competitive markets, will be required to facilitate the transition of the region to a more balanced growth path."