Chinese economy to slow to 7.62%: forecast

China Data

BEIJING - Economic growth in China will decelerate to 7.62 percent in 2014, down from 7.7 percent in 2013, a report jointly issued by Xiamen University and the Economic Information Daily forecast on Thursday.

The forecast was based on domestic issues as well as the government's plans to push forward reforms.

Excessive production capacities are expected to depress investment growth in the real economy, while debt pressure facing local governments will also restrain expansion of their investment, the report said.

The report forecast growth in the first quarter will decrease to 7.46 percent before peaking to 7.76 percent in the second quarter due to a recovery of exports. However, growth in the last two quarters will taper off to 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter.

The report also said that a rising yuan and increasing wage levels have taken a toll on foreign trade since last year. Meanwhile, slower income growth for both urban and rural citizens as well as the government's crackdown on extravagance will impact consumption.

Figures from data company Markit on Thursday showed the country's manufacturing activity has contracted for the second month in a row in February. The HSBC/Markit China flash manufacturing PMI for February dipped to a seven-month low of 48.3 from 49.5 in January.

Official data also showed the purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector dropped to a six-month low of 50.5 percent in January.

China's manufacturing PMI drops to 51% in Dec	Production to slow down: HSBC