Obama faces the great Iraq dilemma

By Tom Plate (China Daily) Updated: 2014-06-25 07:10

Iraq had essentially become a lost cause as early as August 2005, compelling me to write: "The US military is enmeshed in a vicious insurgency and there may be no way out - except, in fact, to get out, outright. What's more, the American public increasingly appears to agree. A consensus is developing that things have gone sour since the stunning US blitzkrieg of March 2003. In fact, a recent USA Today/Gallup poll found 54 percent do not think it was even worth going into Iraq; a separate Newsweek poll found 61 percent disapproving of President Bush's handling of Iraq. All the current opinion indicators are anything but gung-ho for continuing indefinitely."

In 2008, Obama campaigned against the Iraq war not only because it was unpopular, but also because it had been misconceived right from the beginning. Neither weapons of mass destruction nor a shared passion for democratic process and conflict resolution among Sunnis and Shiites was found in Iraq. Whether we "stayed the course" or not, many people would die. The only question was, if we stayed, how many more Iraqis (and, of course, Americans) would die.

From the start and throughout, Obama has rightly sought moral clarity and American relief in withdrawal. So any re-entry of American forces, beyond a token measure designed to protect US embassy personnel, will only deepen the tragedy.

To stay true to his vision, judgment and instinct, Obama must ride out his unpopularity for openly conceding that the war - of which he is now the prime custodian - never made sense. The reality is that, almost 5,000 US soldiers have given their lives in the occupation and at least 30,000 have retuned home with serious injuries.

Another different and better reality is that, thanks to Obama, there were no American casualties in Iraq in March, the first such month since February 2003. But it now appears that before too long Obama will become a political casualty of the war he neither started nor believed in. Such is history's ability to churn out paradox.

The author is Loyola Marymount University's Distinguished Scholar of Asian and Pacific Studies. His latest book, In the Middle of China's Future, is due to hit the stands in August.