October remains the month for political surprises

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(Agencies)
Updated: 2008-10-02 19:04

BOSTON -- Heading into the final weekend of the 2004 presidential campaign, John Kerry was feeling good about his chances of winning the White House.

In this Oct. 26, 1972 file photo, then presidential adviser Dr. Henry Kissinger tells a White House news conference that 'peace is at hand in Vietnam. [Agencies]

The Democratic nominee thought he had bested President Bush in their three prime-time debates. He also felt he'd convinced Americans his military and foreign affairs experience left him better equipped to end the Iraqi war.

Then Osama bin Laden weighed in with the most recent "October surprise" to land with a thud on a presidential campaign.

Kerry believes bin Laden cost him the presidency by issuing a videotape that criticized Bush and warned US voters that "your security is in your own hands" in the election. And the Massachusetts senator thinks that's instructive for both Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain during the final month of their campaign.

From Henry Kissinger's declaration that "peace is at hand" in Vietnam a month before the 1972 election, to a report just before the 2000 vote that George W. Bush had once been arrested for drunken driving, last-minute sensations have demonstrated the potential to reshape a race.

"It changed the entire dynamic of the last five days," Kerry said this week of the bin Laden tape. "We saw it in the polling. There was no other intervening event. We saw the polls freeze and then we saw them drop a point, because all the security moms, it agitated people over 9/11."

Kerry added, "Whenever you're close to an election, things have more impact, you don't have time to respond, you don't have time to change the dynamics backwards."

That certainly was the concern in 1980, the election year that spawned the term "October surprise." In a twist of fate, the name grew out of a fear that never was realized.

Republican Ronald Reagan was challenging Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter in 1980. Precisely a year before Election Day, a group of Islamic radicals had stormed the US Embassy in Tehran, Iran, and seized American hostages.

President Carter worked throughout the campaign to secure their release, including launching an ill-fated rescue mission in April 1980 that killed eight US servicemen. Critics say the Reagan team was so concerned that Carter would gain a boost by winning their release just before the election, that his campaign manager and others negotiated privately with the Iranians to ensure that did not happen.

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