Generally the farther ahead passengers book cruises, the more the lines can charge. The window has begun to widen, with passengers now booking an average of three months ahead, compared with just six weeks in early 2009, McLeod said.
But a wave of new ships ordered during the boom times are now coming on line and that will put pressure on rates, a boon for bargain-hunting passengers but not so much for cruise line earnings.
No. 1 cruise line Carnival's newest and biggest ship, the 3,652-passenger Carnival Dream, starts regular cruises to the Caribbean in December out of Florida's Port Canaveral.
Royal Caribbean will launch the Oasis' twin, Allure of the Seas, next December, one of eight new ships due out in 2010 industrywide. Capacity is expected to rise by 7 percent next year, and a little less than that in 2011, before settling.
"No new ships have been ordered for now 20 months and that hasn't occurred in the last 25 years," McLeod said.
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Bookings aboard Oasis have been strong because it offers so much of everything, Royal Caribbean's Fain said.
Seven-night cruises start at $1,049 per person, double occupancy, for an inside cabin and run up to $16,659 per person for the two-story Royal Loft suite, which includes a baby grand piano and private 843-square foot balcony.
"We're getting much higher rates than I certainly would have expected even a year ago. The reception has just been overwhelming. I'm feeling pretty good right now," Fain said.
Royal Caribbean will see some cost savings from economies of scale on Oasis. Fuel consumption per guest is 30 percent lower than on an average ship and engine room staffing, for example, is not significantly bigger than on other ships because that part of the Oasis is very compact, Fain said.
Other costs are higher because it takes more staff to run its 24 dining venues and service 4,100 toilets, 42 elevators and 4,500 air conditioning units.
"On another ship we don't have high divers and horticulturists, Zamboni operators," Fain said, referring to equipment used to groom ice-skating rinks.