Sudden COVID surge in India prompts talk of month-long third wave due to Omicron variant

Nothing could have brought deeper gloom for Indians in the New Year than a sudden surge of a virus spreading like wildfire.

Just when there was a feeling of some relief, and people were beginning to believe that they were slowly coming out of the stifling new-normal pandemic regime, Omicron, a highly transmissible variant of the COVID-19 virus, is lashing the world's second-most populous nation.

The speed with which the new variant is infecting people across the country has prompted experts to say that the third wave of COVID has arrived in India.

Dhrubajyoti Chattopadhyay, a molecular virologist and vice-chancellor of the Kolkata-based Sister Nivedita University, predicted an explosion of infections in the coming few weeks.

"Community transmission cannot be ruled out," he said, but noted that the new virus strain appears to be less severe and that the need for hospitalisations seems to be less.

"Even if one gets hospitalised, the need for life-saving devices will be much less," Chattopadhyay said.

With a surge in new cases, India's COVID-19 tally passed the 35 million mark this week, even as the government began vaccinating 15 to 18-year olds in the New Year.

On Jan 5, the country reported its first death from Omicron, sparking worries about a potential spike in infections linked to the new COVID variant and its impact on the nation's already fragile public health system.

"It is common knowledge that viruses such as Omicron feed on and grow and spread in cells, and in the process damage cells. A deadly virus dies with the person whom it infects but a variant that causes a very mild infection survives and spreads fast," Chattopadhyay said.

Tanmay Mahapatra, an epidemiologist who works for non-governmental organization CARE India, said "viral pandemics show gradual replacement of virulent variants by the less virulent. The trend that Omicron is gradually becoming the predominant variant over Delta in many places may turn out to be a blessing."

However, he added that more data is required and it may take a few weeks before any conclusions can be drawn.

The World Health Organization on Jan 6 warned that the Omicron variant should not be labelled as mild, pointing out that it is killing people around the world.

Of the total number of fresh cases — 20,181 — reported in Mumbai, India's financial capital, on Jan 6, over 87 percent of the infected were said to be asymptomatic.

"Since the virus cannot grow in damaged cells, it loses virulence. But because of the large number of mutations, the infectivity is much higher," said Chattopadhyay.

"The infection figures will keep going up until the wave reaches the peak — perhaps in Feb or March."

India's COVID-19 taskforce has noted that the R — an index of how fast infections spread — has risen to 2.69. "This is higher than the 1.69 we saw during the second wave at peak," the taskforce chief, Vinod K. Paul, has told the media.

The 2.69 R value means that 100 COVID-infected people will lead to 269 new infections.

Paul urged people to remain calm. "We are prepared, we have experience and we have the massive shield of very high coverage of vaccines," he told the media.

Indrani Mitra, who runs a paediatric clinic, however, expressed concern, citing the case of a child who tested positive for the Omicron variant in West Bengal state last month.

"Had there been extensive tests, the number of infections among children would be higher," she told China Daily.

Mahapatra, from CARE India, said that although Omicron may be less severe than Delta, there could still be problems if it generates a larger overall number of cases.

"Omicron has been found to be more active in the upper respiratory tract and less in lung. But there is no evidence to jump into a conclusion this variant will leave your lung unharmed," he said.

Following a surge in new infections, many big Indian cities, including Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore and Kolkata, have announced night curfews.