A delayed Brexit seems increasingly possible

Editor's Note: The United Kingdom is facing its most severe post-Cold War political crisis because of its scheduled divorce with the European Union on March 29. But the Brexit deal is full of uncertainties, and British lawmakers are still debating various possibilities, such as a no-deal Brexit, a last-minute deal, a deferred Brexit and a possible second referendum. Two experts share their views on the issue with China Daily's Pan Yixuan. Excerpts follow:

Opposition to May's deal will remain

Tian Dewen, vice dean of the Institute of European Studies of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

The Brexit process has reached an impasse because of the differences in opinions and growing uncertainties over a deal with the EU. After the British Parliament rejected a draft deal on Jan 15, British Prime Minister Theresa May has proposed an alternative draft, which will be voted in parliament on Tuesday. But even if parliament approves the alternative deal, May still has to negotiate an agreement with Brussels, which suggests the situation is extremely fluid.

May can hardly fulfill the many requirements of the new draft deal, particularly on Northern Ireland. Under the Irish "backstop" plan, Britain has vowed to maintain an open border between the British territory of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland under EU regulations until Dec 31, 2020, after which there is a big unknown. Maybe the hard border will be manned again from 2021.

May strived to seek a transition period after Brexit to refine the border issue, which Euroskeptics consider a betrayal of Brexit. And the EU does not seem interested in a new deal.

A deferred Brexit could be a choice but only if Brussels is open to it. And many British lawmakers want to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

However, whether or not May has significantly amended the rejected deal in her alternative draft, the opposition to her new deal will remain. Which means the problems created by Brexit will have long-term effects.

Exit from EU will leave Britain in confusion

Chen Zhimin, a professor of international studies at and vice-president of Fudan University

There are doubts whether the UK can prevent a no-deal Brexit and whether an alternative deal will be passed on Tuesday or, at least, before March 29.

Therefore, among all the possibilities, delaying Brexit seems the most likely choice, as it would give more time to Britain to negotiate with the EU as well as to achieve an agreement in the British Parliament.

Despite the possibilities of a delay, how long will Brexit be postponed is still a vital question. For instance, if Britain does not leave the EU before May when the European Parliament elections are scheduled for, will it take part in the elections?

Although deferring Brexit until May may not be difficult, two months may not be enough to resolve all the disputes.

And if Brexit is put off until July, provided Brussels agrees, will it create other problems?

May has been reiterating the harms a no-deal Brexit could cause the UK to pressure the opposition to agree to her deal even at the last moment. Brexit is the most complicated political problem for Britain since the end of World War II, which it didn't see coming. And British lawmakers, thanks to their different stances, are striving to achieve their own goals.

Britain voted to leave the EU when some EU member states were facing a severe economic and political crisis that had a big impact on the European integration project. Before the referendum in 2016, though, not enough discussions on the costs and benefits of leaving the EU were held.

Moreover, the Irish "backstop" and the vortex of Brexit-induced chaos have led to what seems like an unbreakable stalemate. Whatever the result, Brexit will leave Britain in confusion and uncertainties.