Biden 'target' No. 1 in first of Democrats' debates?

Joe Biden won't be on the stage, but the former vice-president and front-runner for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination is likely to be the target when 10 rivals hold their first debate on Wednesday in Miami, Florida.

The 76-year-old Biden, who has participated in at least 16 debates as a presidential or vice-presidential candidate, is expected to again be the target when he is on stage Thursday for the second debate with nine other candidates seeking the Democratic nomination to face President Donald Trump in 2020.

"Biden will have a target on his back, and he has the potential of having more damage done to his candidacy than any other candidate," Andrew Smith, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire and director of the school's survey center, told China Daily. "He'll have to show he can take the arrows, and anything damaging to him will become the story."

Biden leads in recent polls of Democratic voters by seven to 27 percentage points. Trailing are Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. Warren is in the Wednesday debate; Sanders will appear on Thursday.

The nationally televised debates may provide an opportunity for a candidate to break out of the pack, but each must maintain at least the façade of party unity while stating positions on major issues, including the continuing trade dispute with China, the US economy, healthcare and illegal immigration.

With so many candidates on stage, each will have at most 10 minutes to speak and are likely to try a clever quip to get noticed, analysts said.

"Most people won't pay close attention to this debate," Smith said. "No candidate can win the race in June 2019 — it will be won in April or May of next year. A good performance this early means a candidate will be able to raise money and participate in the next debate. This pattern will continue for another six months. At this stage, polls reflect little more than name recognition."

Biden is likely to face questions in the debate for saying he had a cordial working relationship with two Democratic Southern segregationists in the Senate. He's also likely to be questioned about his strong opposition — before reversing his stance — to federal funding for abortion, analysts said.

Jonathan Zogby, CEO of Zogby Analytics, said the crowded Democratic field almost certainly means a long, difficult fight to win the nomination.

"The Democrats are setting themselves up for a battle royal with a bloodied candidate emerging as the nominee," Zogby said. "Look how (Kamala) Harris, (Cory) Booker, Warren and others went after Biden last week for working with people who had awful views about race. Biden's point was that to get things done, we must find common ground with people we might not like. Democrats are on uncommon ground with each other right now."

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said Democrats can learn from the 2016 Republican debates.

"In 2016, Trump seemed to avoid being directly attacked because other Republicans assumed he would fall apart even when he led," Kondik said. "Democrats should not assume Biden will fall apart and should attack him if warranted. Whether or not they do so will be a major storyline of this and subsequent debates."

Analysts agreed that Trump will probably be tuning in.

"I think Trump will watch the debates, make comments and enjoy himself," Neil Levesque, director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College, told China Daily. "If he can belittle the pack of 20 candidates, it will be to his advantage."

There will be a total of 12 debates during the Democratic primary season. NBC randomly selected what day the candidates would be on the stage in Miami.