Turmoil in Hong Kong symptom of deep-seated social problems

The ongoing turbulence in Hong Kong reminds me of a phone interview I had with a BBC journalist in September 2014 during the "Occupy Central" demonstration in the special administrative region.

In the interview, I clearly sensed the journalist' s excitement as if a great "Color Revolution" had erupted in Hong Kong and would soon spread across China. I jolted him back to reality by saying it was a wrong movement at the wrong time in the wrong place, and as such had no basis to succeed, it would fail.

When he asked why, I said that if "Occupy Central" did not affect Hong Kong's economy or its residents' livelihoods, no one would care about it, even if it lasted 100 years, but now it was affecting the livelihoods of Hong Kong people, and thus they would eventually rise up and stop it. If the Hong Kong SAR government could not handle the problem on its own, the central government could give it a helping hand.

I think this conclusion also applies to the current chaos. Hong Kong's image on the mainland has plummeted and its international image has suffered a lot as a result of the rioters' illegal street closures, beating of mainland residents, besieging of official buildings and police stations, and paralyzing of the airport. Hong Kong is a typical capitalist society where many ordinary workers are paid by the day, even by the hour. So, Hong Kong's economy has been hit hard by the riots, which goes against the interests of the vast majority of Hong Kong people and has aroused anger.

The hostile forces will likely continue to make trouble and keep their presence in Hong Kong, but I believe more and more Hong Kong people will act in their own interests to stop the violence and the disorder. Of course, this is not to say that the problems will be solved any time soon. On the contrary, there are deep-rooted reasons for Hong Kong's current problems. Hong Kong has entered a period of turmoil, and there may even be attempts by Wall Street speculators to short sell the Hong Kong dollar, so we should be on high alert.

As for the cause of the unrest this time, I recall late leader Deng Xiaoping's analysis of the political turmoil in 1989. He said the turmoil was determined by the external and internal climates and would come sooner or later, so it would be better to come sooner rather than later.

Deng's judgment also applies to Hong Kong's current riots. Externally, the United States is not willing to go all the way in terms of national strength to curb China's development, but at the same time it is exacerbating the situation in Hong Kong to increase its bargaining chips with China at a time when there is no chance of it winning the trade war. At a deeper level, the US wants to keep a long-term presence in Hong Kong and would love to spark a "Color Revolution" and then spread it to the Chinese mainland. Internally, after more than 150 years of British colonial rule, the "one country, two systems" framework has shown some deficiencies in its implementation, especially the weakness of the SAR government and various problems that emerged in relation to its judiciary and education system, which, together with some serious livelihood problems such as housing and employment, have created the conditions for the current turbulence.

Apart from the external and internal factors, Hong Kong's deep-seated problems in its social structure have also contributed to the ongoing chaos. In Hong Kong, the combination of real estate capital and financial capital in particular makes economic restructuring impossible, resulting in housing and employment difficulties, and many young people see no hope for a better future. Western hostile forces and the power of capital have deliberately directed young people's anger toward the SAR government and the central government. In this sense, even when Hong Kong's current turmoil subsides, some of the deep-rooted problems cannot be addressed overnight.

No matter how big the problem is, it is only a local issue for such a huge country as China. What's more, there is the firewall of "one country, two systems", which can effectively ensure that the overall situation of the mainland's booming development is not affected.

However, the turmoil has also exposed some of the SAR's deep-seated problems and we need to make a comprehensive analysis of them. We need to conduct extensive research and solicit opinions and suggestions from inside and outside Hong Kong, and from all walks of life on its economic, political, legal, financial and other fronts. The Chinese people are highly intelligent and they are sure to find an overall solution to address both the symptoms and root causes of various problems, to fully and accurately implement the principle of "one country, two systems".

The author is director of the China Institute at Fudan University.