Trudeau has to pluck up strong political will on China

If the U.S. has made its mind on its diplomatic strategy on China, then Canada, its largest neighbor country and one of its most important allies, is still swinging its mind on the world's second-largest economy and its second-largest trading partner.

The year 2019 has been icy for Sino-Canadian relations. At the end of 2018, Meng Wanzhou, CFO of China's tech giant Huawei, was arrested by Vancouver police upon U.S. government's request and still has not been released; two Canadian citizens, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor were also arrested in December 2018 in China on account of crimes threatening China's national security.

Blaming Prime Minister Justin Trudeau being too "soft" on China, the Conservative Party has approved to create a committee specially to examine all aspects of Canada's relations with China. This will be bound to exacerbate the already worsening relationship between the two countries.

But this has not been Trudeau's intention as he tries to mend ties with China with its ban on importing Canadian canola seed hurting Canadian farmers. Further escalation with China might be the last thing Trudeau needs as he is already facing a diplomatic fiasco with countries like India and Saudi Arabia.

In fact, as a country whose diplomatic path has mainly been influenced by the U.S., Canada seems to be slow in reacting to a rising Asia compared with America. Already during the Obama period, America's military and economic policies are turning to Asia, and the strategy of a "rebalance" in the Asia-Pacific region was proposed. Then came the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" plan by Trump.

But while its neighbor is sparing no effort to engage with Asia, Canada seems to be getting confused and hesitant about its strategy on China. On the one hand, Canada's diplomatic policy is still heavily influenced by the good old Atlanticism, where the alliance between America, Canada, and the EU is thought to be at the center of the world stage. Lack of experienced diplomats in this region also means Canada's diplomatic and strategic transition is slow and bumpy.

On the other hand, as anti-China sentiment has prevailed in the White House, it is more than ever difficult for Canada to maintain its neutral position. The U.S. remains Canada's top diplomatic and economic partner, and it is buying 75 percent of Canada's exports as its largest trading partner.

Although Sino-U.S. relations have deteriorated, Canada could have served as a mediator between the two countries. Instead, it has taken a side leaning towards the U.S. in the case of Meng Wanzhou. Before the incident, Trudeau was pushing for free trade agreement talks with China, and the two countries were indeed warming up their ties. But the arrest made a sudden unfavorable turn to the two countries' relationship.

It should be noted, though, that the arrest did not boost American-Canadian ties as some have expected. Trudeau has hoped that the U.S. could provide diplomatic support as Canada has been bearing the consequences of China's retaliation measures. But the Trump administration has made little progress on this issue. During the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) negotiations, Canada has almost been left out for a while by the U.S. and Mexico.

In the meantime, the frosty relations have also started to be absorbed by the Canadian public. According to a survey by the University of British Columbia, almost half of respondents say that they do not want Huawei to play a significant role in the country's 5G rollout. Only 29 percent of interviewees hold a positive view of China, down from 36 percent two years ago.

Moving on, Trudeau has to deal with the anti-China sentiment both from the Conservative Party and the Canadian public if he wants to mend ties with China. But more importantly, he has to put together the strong political will to push for healthier Sino-Candian relations. And there has been some independent gene in Canada's diplomatic history. In 1970, Trudeau's father, then Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau, established diplomatic ties with China despite U.S. opposition. Perhaps that is the courage and boldness that Trudeau needs right now.