Malaysian prime minister's coalition passes first test in parliament after 'razor-thin' majority win

The ongoing session of the Malaysian Parliament is testing the legitimacy of Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin's four-month-old government, analysts said.

The ruling Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition has drawn initial win on the July 13 opening session, after they successfully ousted Mohamad Ariff Md Yusof as speaker and replaced him with former chairman of the Election Commission Azhar Azizan Harun.

Deputy Speaker Nga Kor Ming likewise resigned and was replaced by Azalina Othman Said, member of Parliament (MP) of Pengerang constituency in the southern state of Johor. She is also a member of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), one of the major parties that comprise PN.

Analysts said that PN only managed to win by two votes and only after a heated debate. Muhyiddin's role in the next three weeks while the Lower House is in session is to shore up support in the lower chamber as the "razor-thin" majority is not enough to deter the strong opposition.

But by putting a PN-backed speaker in Parliament, Muhyiddin can at least control what motions will be prioritized and discussed. Analysts cited former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad's call for a no-confidence motion against Muhyiddin. Mahathir filed the motion as an MP for the Langkawi constituency in the northwestern state of Kedah.

Azmil Mohd Tayeb, senior lecturer in the School of Social Sciences at the Universiti Sains Malaysia, said that even if it is just a slim majority, Muhyiddin has shown that he has enough votes in Parliament to fend off any attempt to discuss Mahathir's motion.

This is the second time this year that the 14th Parliament has convened, holding a session amid a pandemic and a stuttering economy. The Asian Development Bank has forecast the Malaysian economy to contract by 4 percent this year. One of the bills that the 222 MPs are expected to discuss concerns measures to mitigate the socio-economic impact of COVID-19.

James Chin, director of the Asia Institute Tasmania at Australia's University of Tasmania, expects the ongoing session to be "fiery" and the opposition to focus on making the current government "lose face".

"The opposition will try to paint this government as illegitimate, a backdoor government (that was installed) without going through a general election," Chin told China Daily.

Muhyiddin, who was sworn in on March 1 as prime minister, came into power after Mahathir resigned from his post. Sultan Abdullah Ri'ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah said he has appointed Muhyiddin as the latter has gained the trust of the majority of the House of Representatives.

Analysts said that it remains to be seen if Muhyiddin has the trust of the majority, noting that the infighting in PN is threatening his tenuous hold on power.

Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said the ouster of Mohamad Ariff, a speaker appointed by the previous Pakatan Harapan (PH) government, is "a victory for Muhyiddin, but a razor-thin one".

Oh said that a defection of just two supporters is enough to deprive Muhyiddin a majority and his bigger concern now is to manage the power struggle within PN.

"It's this very delicate balance that's keeping Muhyiddin politically afloat," he said.

Azmil of the Universiti Sains Malaysia said it is this infighting that will also keep Muhyiddin from calling for snap elections.

"It's doubtful that Muhyiddin will call for a snap poll now until he can be sure that his position and that of his party will remain secure," Azmil said alluding to the Malaysian United Indigenous Party (Bersatu).

Muhyiddin is the president of Bersatu, one of the parties included in the ruling coalition. Azmil said Bersatu is in a "weak position" compared with the bigger parties in PN such as UMNO and Malaysian Islamic Party or PAS. On the other hand, even the opposition PH party is fraught with its own internal struggles, which in the end bodes well for Muhyiddin.

"Pakatan Harapan is too fragmented now to even ponder about a snap poll. So, I think Muhyiddin and Bersatu will survive in the next two and a half years until the next general election is held," he said.

The next Malaysian general election is scheduled to be held in September 2023.

Chin of the Asia Institute Tasmania said PN's slim majority in the parliament will also discourage the holding of snap elections.

"There's the danger that you might lose the elections," he said.

Chin added that the appointment of a PN-backed speaker in Parliament has also eased the pressure on the current administration.

"The government is in the stronger position so there's less pressure for it to hold snap elections," he said.