Hopes for trade deal slip as Britain's struggle with EU over Brexit continues

After months in which headlines in the United Kingdom focused on the British government's problem-strewn response to the COVID-19 crisis, there is renewed attention on the looming deadline for the country's definitive departure from Europe with no post-Brexit trade deal in sight.

The UK formally left the European Union on Jan 31. However, transitional trade and other arrangements remain in place until Dec 31 when the British will go their own way, deal or no deal.

In practice, a trade pact needs to be wrapped up by October and, to judge by statements from Brussels, it is not going well.

After the latest round of exchanges last week, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said: "Too often this week it felt as if we were going backwards more than forwards. I simply do not understand why we are wasting valuable time."

The EU's frustration appears to center on the perception that the UK, while going its own way, is seeking to retain many of the benefits of membership.

The UK side is being somewhat more upbeat, although with little to show in practical terms for its optimism. After last week's talks broke up without a resolution, the UK's Brexit envoy David Frost said he was looking for ways to "inject a little bit of a spark" into what remains of the negotiating period.

Hardline Brexiters have stuck to the belief, ever since their referendum victory in mid-2016, that the EU will fold at the last minute by offering concessions. With the mantra that no deal is better than a bad deal, their stance appears to be that the 27 members of the union have more to lose from no deal than the UK does.

And yet it is the UK side that made most of the concessions Prime Minister Boris Johnson needed to push through a Withdrawal Agreement in Parliament. That deal is now being denounced by many of the hardline members of his Conservative Party who voted for it.

The Brexit ultras are, as usual, focusing on relatively minor issues such as fishing rights that allow them to highlight the benefits of a return to full UK sovereignty.

It could be said, however, that the EU has bigger priorities as it pursues free trade deals with China and the United States, worth potentially far more than any future deal with the UK.

After Chinese and EU representative met via video link in July, Brussels reported significant progress and Chinese Vice-Premier, Liu He, said he hoped to see an investment deal ready for signing by the end of the year.

After recent EU-US talks, the two sides meanwhile announced last week agreement on a package of tariff reductions that will increase market access for hundreds of millions of dollars in US and EU exports.

The UK is having a harder time, however, in fulfilling the Brexit promise of bilateral trade deals with its partners to replace those it benefitted from via EU membership.

Although talks have been under way with the US, progress will be frozen at least until the outcome of the US presidential election in November.

The UK and Japan were looking forward to wrapping up a quick trade deal before the end of the year, although their latest round of talks stalled on the seemingly trivial issue of exports of the UK's famous Stilton blue cheese.

Although there is no indication that those who voted for Brexit are having second thoughts in any significant numbers, it is perhaps dawning on a large section of the public that the UK needs the rest of the world more than the rest of the world needs the UK.

Coupled with the economic hit imposed by the novel coronavirus pandemic, the further burden of a potential no deal with the EU imposes an additional challenge on the Johnson government.

Its handling of aspects of the health crisis, including a botched program for awarding school exam results, has drawn criticism from some of its previously most faithful allies in the media and elsewhere.

The belief in Brussels is that the UK side will inevitably have to fold if it is to avoid the worst economic outcome.

One EU official told an interviewer the UK desperately need a deal. "If the clock is ticking, reality will start to sink in, in London," the official was quoted as saying.

"The UK might not always have behaved rationally in its negotiations with Brussels, but surely the pandemic and the lack of trade alternatives must lead to some reason in London."

Harvey Morris is a senior media consultant for China Daily UK