Brexit 'tribes' fracturing says report as pandemic causes change in attitude

Following the results of the Brexit referendum in 2016, the United Kingdom became split between the Leave and Remain camps, town and city dwellers, and the old and young. But it appears those voter 'tribes' created during the referendum are fading, according to research by the European Council on Foreign Relations, or ECFR.

The novel coronavirus crisis has also changed Britons' attitudes to the world, Europe and the state, according to the survey.

Researchers suggests that the shock of COVID-19 could erase politics divided along the lines of Leavers and Remainers and the pandemic may be bringing "Brexit era" politics to an end.

This presents an opportunity for the Labour Party to revive its fortunes, the research said, including in the "red wall" constituencies that were so crucial to the Conservative Party's landslide general election win in 2019.

According to Mark Leonard, the think-tank's founding director, the UK could be returning to a "natural state" of "left and right" politics, as a result of COVID-19.

Leonard suggests that the pandemic could "transform perceptions" of the Conservative Party's pitch of competence, and "open up "a way for the Labour Party to regain ground it lost in the election.

Researchers said "tribal identities" have blurred and voters have become cross-pressured between their Brexit identities and new issues stirred by COVID-19.

Voters are as likely to judge the government on its competence in response to the pandemic as on its attitude toward Brexit.

"There now appears to be greater support among the British public for a redistributive agenda, as key voting groups, such as the Red Wall defectors, find themselves in economic distress. And, importantly, rather than supporting isolationism, these important groups also express support for a pragmatic internationalist agenda," the report said.

In the poll of UK voters, the ECFR also found the public's perception of the government has deteriorated during the pandemic, including among Conservative Party voters.

Some 54 percent of respondents said their opinion had worsened. Only 18 percent said it had improved.

According to the ECFR, "red wall voters" who helped Boris Johnson's Conservative Party win the general election in 2019 are already receptive to other political parties.

ECFR's polling finds that Labour Party leader Keir Starmer has already won back a substantial number of former Labour Party voters. Large numbers of those defined as "red wall defectors" are, it found, moving away from the Conservatives.

"While many 'red wallers' are aligned with the Conservatives on cultural issues, they are embracing a pragmatic internationalism abroad, and a redistributive agenda at home, that could play well for Labour under Sir Keir Starmer," Leonard said. "This polling shows the first sign that COVID-19 could end up transforming perceptions of government competence in the way that Black Wednesday transformed perceptions of Conservative economic management in 1992, and opened the way for a political realignment in which Labour seized the agenda on both culture and the economy."