Row between UK, EU likely to escalate

The simmering row between the United Kingdom and European Union over the post-Brexit trade status with Northern Ireland could erupt into a full-blown trade war in the coming days.

After months of UK complaints about the Northern Ireland Protocol, and months of EU insistence that it could and should be made to work, the issue looks set to come to a head on Wednesday, when the bloc unveils proposals for dealing with London's complaints.

The UK has said it wants nothing less than a full rewrite, and the removal of European Court of Justice, or ECJ, oversight of the mechanism that aims to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland by keeping the province in the EU's single market for goods.

The Republic of Ireland's foreign minister, Simon Coveney, said the gulf between the two sides could trigger a "breakdown in relations "between London and Brussels.

He wrote on Twitter the EU has been "working seriously to resolve practical issues with implementation of (the Northern Ireland Protocol)". But he said the UK had created a new "red line" by insisting on the removal of ECJ oversight.

He said it was a "barrier to progress".

"Does (the UK government) actually want an agreed way forward, or a further breakdown in relations?" he asked.

The BBC reported on Sunday that the EU's proposals are thought to include practical arrangements to make the movement of goods from Britain to Northern Ireland easier. But the broadcaster said they will not include removal of ECJ oversight.

The BBC said the UK's Brexit minister, David Frost, will make a speech on Tuesday to insist on the removal of ECJ oversight, or the end of the protocol.

The broadcaster said he plans to say: "Without new arrangements in this area, the protocol will never have the support it needs to survive. The role of the ECJ in Northern Ireland and the consequent inability of the UK government to implement the very sensitive arrangements in the protocol in a reasonable way has created a deep imbalance in the way the protocol operates."

The British government insists disputes between London and Brussels over the Northern Ireland Protocol should not be handled by the EU's top court but by an independent arbitrator.

The Guardian newspaper said some experts believe the row will end in a trade war.

If that happens, Catherine Barnard, a professor of EU law at the University of Cambridge, told the paper the EU could start by sending a strong message with the imposition of tariffs on iconic British products, such as whisky and salmon.

The Financial Times said EU officials had told it half of the customs checks currently called for in the protocol would be scrapped under Brussels' latest concessions. But the paper said that will still likely fall "far short "of London's insistence on trade with Belfast being as easy as trade with Birmingham.