US economy grows at annualized 6.9 pct in Q4, with dim outlook for Q1

WASHINGTON - The US economy grew at an annual rate of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, with dim outlook for the first quarter as effects of the Omicron variant start to show up, the US Commerce Department reported Thursday.

"In the fourth quarter, COVID-19 cases resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country," the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in an advance estimate.

"Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or tapered off," the report noted.

The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in both federal and state and local government spending, the report showed. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.3 percent amid the Delta variant-fueled COVID-19 surge and continued supply bottleneck, the BEA data showed.

Real GDP increased 5.7 percent in 2021, following a decrease of 3.4 percent in 2020.

Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery, economists at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in an analysis that "savor the flavor because it will not last".

"The details behind the better-than-expected headline point to a slowing in spending and a back-up in inventories," Quinlan and Seery said. "Without the boost from inventories, GDP would have been just 2.0 percent in Q4."

"Not knowing what was coming in terms of the pandemic, many retailers stocked up in anticipation of strong holiday sales and businesses continued to pull out all the stops to source much needed inventories," they noted.

But after a strong October and decent November, retail sales ended the year with a flop in December, according to the analysis.

Quinlan and Seery also noted that the "defining challenge" for the economy in the next year or two will be "how well we can sustain growth not just in the absence of fiscal policy, but in the face of tightening monetary policy".

The GDP data was released one day after the US Federal Reserve signaled that the central bank is ready to raise interest rates as soon as March to combat surging inflation as it exits from the ultra-loose monetary policy enacted at the start of the pandemic.

At a virtual press conference Wednesday afternoon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the US economy "no longer needs sustained high levels of monetary policy support" due to the remarkable progress in the labor market and higher inflation.

Also on Thursday, the US Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims last week fell by 30,000 to reach 260,000 after hitting a three-month high amid Omicron surge.

Prior to that, the figure had been rising for three weeks in a row, as the fast-spreading COVID-19 Omicron variant continued to disrupt labor market recovery.

"Initial unemployment claims fell to 260,000 for the week ending January 22 but remained well above the lows hit in December," Diane Swonk, chief economist at major accounting firm Grant Thornton, wrote in a blog.

"This ups the ante on a very weak employment report for the month of January and likely understates the weakness for the month as a record number of people sickened from Omicron or were caring for others who were sick," Swonk said.

Swonk believes that growth is poised to slow "fairly dramatically" again in the first quarter, with chip shortages worsening, and the large disruptions due to both demand and supply from the Omicron variant.

Her economic team's forecast is for real GDP to come to "a near halt", with an annualized growth rate of little more than 1 percent in the first quarter of 2022.