Macron warned over re-election prospects

French President Emmanuel Macron has been warned that success in next month's presidential election may not be quite as assured as many people have been thinking, amid reports of a lackluster campaign and the potential problems thrown up by turbulent world events.

The first round of the two-stage election takes place on April 10, with 12 candidates in contention, to be whittled down to two for the final run-off, which takes place on April 24.

Opinion polls show Macron as the current popular choice, on 27 percent, with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, who Macron beat to win the presidency in 2017, in second place on 21 percent, well clear of the rest of the field.

France's presidency of the Council of the European Union has coincided with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has seen Macron take a prominent role in the international response, but seasoned political observers are saying it also brings an element of unpredictability into the electoral equation.

"This is not an election like any other and I cannot see in any way that the result is certain. We could say one thing today and tomorrow it could be different," Dominique Reynie, head of the influential Fondapol think tank and a professor at the Sciences Po university in Paris, told a gathering of international media.

The advantage for Macron is that in a time of conflict, "people rally to the president who is the head of the military and foreign policy… and there's the idea that it's not reasonable in this situation to have a new president who has no experience", he said.

Although Macron is still predicted to be the winner of a run-off with Le Pen by a margin of 55 percent to 45, domestic concerns are high on the agenda, and there is a fear that voter dissatisfaction with Macron's handling of these may result in some voters who disagree with him but cannot bring themselves to vote for Le Pen abstaining in the first round.

"On April 10, there could be strong abstention from moderate voters who are anti-Marine Le Pen but hostile to Emmanuel Macron and this is the largest group in the electorate. If they don't turn out for the first round, thinking it's a foregone conclusion, we just don't know what the consequences will be," Reynie added.

The Reuters news agency has quoted insiders from Macron's team as saying that he has not done enough to engage with and inspire voters to come out and back him, becoming overly dependent on social media postings and recorded messages.

"There is no magic in this campaign. Nobody's excited, not the French, not political journalists, not even us in the campaign," said one Macron team member, adding that the conflict in Ukraine "has shut everything down".

Macron's role in the Ukraine response is also proving to be a turn-off for some voters, who would rather he devoted more time to home matters.

"We're a bit bored, to be honest," another insider was quoted as saying. "We need to hear the message of those who want the president to be more present at home."