Exports drive stabilization in trade

China's exports are expected to maintain stable growth during the second half of the year as trade activity continues to vitalize, providing stronger support to overall economic expansion according to trade experts and economists on Wednesday.

Their comments came as the General Administration of Customs said China's exports surged by 13.2 percent on a yearly basis to hit 11.14 trillion yuan ($1.66 trillion) in the first half of the year, picking up from an 11.4-percent increase in the first five months.

Imports rose by 4.8 percent year-on-year to 8.66 trillion yuan, also quickening from a 4.7-percent increase in the January-May period.

That has lifted the trade value for the first half of the year to 19.8 trillion yuan, up 9.4 percent year-on-year or 1.1 percentage points higher than the rate in the first five months.

"The data have demonstrated a strong upward momentum in trade recovery," said Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges. "It seems export growth will likely achieve the forecast many analysts have made at the start of the year to register a yearly surge of around 10 percent this year despite multiple challenges."

The nation will also likely retain a considerable trade surplus in 2022, although geopolitical conflicts, expected pullback of economic stimulus in developed economies, and the continuous pandemic will add uncertainties to global demand, he said.

According to the Customs data, imports and exports combined rose by 14.3 percent year-on-year in June, which registered a strong pickup from the 9.5-percent increase in May, and an even sharper comparison with the 0.1-percent growth in April.

Moreover, China's trade with major trading partners all maintained steady growth during the first half of the year.

Trade values with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the European Union and the United States respectively increased by 10.6 percent, 7.5 percent and 11.7 percent during the period.

Liu Ying, a researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, predicted China's foreign trade is likely to exceed 40 trillion yuan this year, with pro-growth policy measures in place to further unleash the potential of the nation's complete and resilient manufacturing system.

"The steady expansion in China's foreign trade will provide impetus for overall economic growth," she said, adding the nation's firm uphold of multilateralism and free trade will help reinforce global trade to benefit consumers and enterprises worldwide.

Chen Jia, a researcher at the International Monetary Institute of Renmin University of China, said China's expectation-beating trade expansion in the first half of the year will not only benefit itself, but also help curb high inflation levels worldwide.

He expected global demand for high-quality and relatively cheap Chinese goods will remain strong as prices of energy and consumer products are persistently high in many economies.

Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, predicted the highly anticipated rollback of some US additional tariffs on Chinese goods will also facilitate China's export growth.

However, Zhang with the CCIEE said all tariffs must be removed to bring real economic benefits to consumers and enterprises.

He also said China must unwaveringly pursue transformation and upgrades in industrial and supply chains to build a firmer footing for economic growth with more development in high-tech manufacturing and services sectors, although it remains attractive to foreign investors despite external pressures.

According to Zhou Mi, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation in Beijing, trade enterprises in China should make better use of the rules of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement, which took effect on Jan 1, to benefit more from regional industrial chain cooperation.

At the same time, the nation must strengthen efforts to provide training and aid to those who may lose jobs due to the ongoing industrial transformation in China, he said.

Business executives have also expressed their desire for a more facilitating environment with less disruption from the anti-globalization tide.

Wu Dazhi, president of the Guangzhou Leather and Footwear Association, said some Chinese enterprises in the labor-intensive industry have been stepping up research and development and establishing overseas factories amid protectionist trade measures by the US and some European countries as well as increased labor costs in China.

Such moves will catalyze the transformation of Chinese enterprises to climb up to better positions in global industrial and supply chains, he said.

liuzhihua@chinadaily.com.cn