Abortion issue a concern, but trails finances

While the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe vs Wade, the landmark decision that guaranteed the right to abortion, and strict abortion laws in some states created some momentum for Democrats, the issue is not uppermost in voters' minds.

A Gallup poll conducted Oct 3-20 showed that as inflation continues to rise without sign of abating, the abortion issue became the No 2 concern for surveyed respondents nationwide.

Overall, 49 percent of surveyed registered voters put the economy as a very important issue in the November midterm elections, while 42 percent placed the same importance on abortion.

Another Gallup poll released Oct 31 showed the same percentages.

Jon Taylor, chair and professor at the Department of Political Science and Geography at the University of Texas at San Antonio, said the abortion issue might not be weighty enough to help the Democrats in the midterm elections on Nov 8.

"Parties that control the White House traditionally lose midterm elections — particularly congressional seats — because these are viewed as a kind of referendum on the current occupant. Unless we're missing something really big in opinion polling, expect to see this trend continue next week, irrespective of the abortion issue," Taylor told China Daily.

After the Supreme Court's decision on June 24, polls by the Pew Research Center showed that the majority — close to 60 percent — of the public supports some form of abortion rights, a consistent number over the past two decades.

There is a gender difference when it comes to voting issues. About 51 percent of female voters ranked the economy and abortion as equally important, while only 32 percent male voters listed abortion as the top issue.

In addition, 51 percent of Democrats ranked abortion as a top concern, and only 37 percent of Republicans and independents shared the same position.

In Texas, where almost all abortions are banned after six weeks, a poll of registered voters by the University of Texas in September showed that abortion lagged other issues, such as the economy, political corruption, climate change, gun control and immigration as priorities for voters. Such results are consistent with the overall positions of Republican voters nationwide.

Even for young people, abortion isn't the top issue. A recent online poll by Course Hero, an online learning platform, found that 66 percent of college students ranked the economy as the top concern, and only 46 percent said that the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe would influence their midterm voting the most.

Taylor said the political momentum generated by the abortion issue lost steam by the end of the summer.

"The Democrats had a chance to capitalize on the abortion ruling had economic issues not taken center stage. They also had a chance to focus on guns in the aftermath of the Uvalde school massacre. Those chances ended by late summer," Taylor said.

The Democrats face two big problems: low approval numbers for President Joe Biden, and continuing issues with inflation, Taylor said. The importance of the abortion issue further declined amid concerns over crime, immigration, and the conflict in Ukraine, he said.

While abortion might not be an issue for the midterms, abortion rights could be affected by the results.

An analysis by ABC News showed that if Republican candidates win various races, including for governor, judgeships and attorneys general, abortion might be banned through legislation or court rulings in six states — Pennsylvania, Kansas, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin — where abortion is currently legal in one form or another.

"While a substantial majority of Americans support the right to an abortion, next Tuesday will likely see more people elected to the House and Senate who are open, if not committed, to instituting a national ban on abortion and likely to propose additional restrictions on a host of areas related to reproductive choice," Taylor said.

Still, Democratic candidates have focused heavily on the abortion issue in their midterm campaigns.

"In congressional campaigns, Democrats and their allies are talking about one thing above all else: abortion" and "have spent $103 million on such ads in congressional races since Labor Day," The Washington Post concluded last week after analyzing campaign messages.

US Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, expressed his concern regarding the Democrats' campaign strategy to The Guardian newspaper.

"As we enter the final weeks of the 2022 midterm elections, I am alarmed to hear the advice that many Democratic candidates are getting from establishment consultants and directors of well-funded Super PACs that the closing argument of Democrats should focus only on abortion. Cut the 30-second abortion ads and coast to victory," Sanders wrote in October.