Forum: China's diplomacy in 2023

A staunch defender of multilateralism

By Junius Ho Kwan-yiu and Kacee Ting Wong

Editor's note: How will China handle its relations with other countries in 2023? How to strengthen cooperation and decrease conflict and confrontation? Four experts share their views on the issue with China Daily.

From the perspective of rational choice theorists, states act rationally to maximize their national interests. Accordingly, China has chosen peace over war, because it will facilitate domestic as well as global development.

Therefore, the concerns over China's aggression and military threat are overblown. That they are overblown is also indicated by a recent RAND report, suggesting that China's ability to overtake the United States by a decisive margin is doubtful.

Although China acknowledges the inevitability of competition, it rejects the notion that conflict is inevitable. The huge cost of a military confrontation between China and the US and its allies will hurt China in the worst way imaginable. And member states of the European Union, which is one of the largest trade partners of China, will shy away from making any economic deals with a warmonger.

Chinese leaders and diplomats have been reiterating that China's policy is to put development at the center of the international agenda. China needs a peaceful environment as a necessary condition to help it narrow its technology gap with major Western powers and become self-reliant in advanced technology. Yet, given the US' hostility, China knows that the flow of investment and technologies from the US will decline.

Hence, to prevent the US-created hurdles from derailing its economic and technological development, China must try its best to avoid decoupling with the European Union and other developed economies.

In less than a decade, China's exports have grown sixfold while its imports have increased almost fivefold. China has also applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. After all, economic interdependence helps deter countries from making war — and China is a promoter of peace, defender of multilateralism and opposes protectionism.

Former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, American academic and activist Orville Schell and the late US sociologist and China expert Ezra Vogel have argued that China does not seek global hegemony, though it wants to achieve regional hegemony. We support the first part of their observation but have strong reservations about the allegation that China seeks regional hegemony.

Their misperception may stem from the Chinese mainland's announcement that it would not refrain from taking military action to prevent the Taiwan separatists and pro-independence politicians from splitting the country. At most, the mainland wants to strengthen its military capability to deter external powers and the Democratic Progressive Party from supporting pro-independence activities on the island.

China does not have any intention of challenging and disrupting the US-dominated global order either. To counter specific US hegemonic actions in China's backyard and promote fairness in the international order, China wants to promote multilateralism, develop strategic partnerships with some of the major powers, and seeks to increase its say in international relations and international institutions.

In this regard, a proper assessment of China's challenges may help US policymakers better understand that China does not pose a threat to any country.

Three years ago, former US president Jimmy Carter reminded us that the US is the biggest warmonger in the world because its aim is to impose US values on other countries. In contrast, China has been investing resources in infrastructure projects such as high-speed railways. Former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, too, has said that China's policy is not to conquer and occupy other countries.

China's rise has been peaceful. According to political scientist Zhang Weiwei, China is a "civilizational state" and does not seek confrontation with other countries. It only seeks peaceful coexistence, mutual learning and mutual benefit.

China promotes global cooperation, not confrontation. And in line with that philosophy, it will likely push for the implementation of the Global Development Initiative while making efforts to align it with the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

President Xi Jinping has added a strong normative dimension to his view on development, arguing that China's development will be pursued in line with the common development of other countries. Way back in 2013, he proposed the Belt and Road Initiative to promote closer economic cooperation between China and other economies so as to improve infrastructure connectivity.

Another aspect of China's foreign policy is to make the world order fairer. Besides denouncing bullying, China advocates and practices genuine multilateralism, promotes equality of rights, rules and opportunities for all countries, and is working with other countries to develop a new type of international relations featuring equality, mutual respect, fairness, justice, and win-win cooperation.

We are hopeful and confident that with the help of its foreign policy, China will be able to realize national rejuvenation.

And if China continues to help maintain global peace and contribute to global development, it will be able to win the hearts and minds of the international community. This will provide an amicable external environment for the Chinese government to cash in on the valuable strategic opportunities and strengthen its economy, make China self-reliant in advanced technology, and achieve common prosperity in the country.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Junius Ho Kwan-yiu is a Hong Kong Legislative Council member and a solicitor.

Kacee Ting Wong is a barrister, part-time researcher at Shenzhen University.

Devising a new Sino-US strategic framework

By Sourabh Gupta

China may be the United States' "most consequential geopolitical challenge", as per the Joe Biden administration's recent National Security Strategy, but it is also one of its most globally significant political and economic partners. It is welcome therefore that President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden were able to initiate a new phase of strategic communication on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia, last month.

In Bali, the two sides re-established a baseline of in-person, leader-led communication, resumed senior official-level dialogue channels, and provided a measure of strategic reassurance to the other side that lowered their respective levels of mistrust. By achieving the intended purpose of having in-depth communication and clarifying both strategic intentions as well as redlines, the two leaders' meeting has hopefully set a new direction, established a framework, and kicked off a process that will cement a "floor "under their all-important bilateral relationship framework in 2023.

At the time of his inauguration on the steps of the US Capitol in January 2021, it was hoped by some that President Biden would gradually return China-US relations to the normal track of dialogue and cooperation after the destructive decoupling-related policy measures of the Donald Trump administration. Those hopes have not borne fruit and may not bear fruit going forward either if there is no change in bilateral ties.

The "old normal" in China-US relations has been fundamentally transformed over the past half a decade.

The broad-minded and farsighted five decade-long consensus on China-US relations that was inaugurated in February 1972 by Chairman Mao Zedong and then premier Zhou Enlai, former US president Richard Nixon and his secretary of state Henry Kissinger is no longer purpose-fit for this more fraught age of geopolitics.

The consensus that was memorialized in the Shanghai Communiqué should be revised and renewed with a fresh strategic framework of Sino-US coexistence that suits the era of strategic competition. This new framework should aim to keep tensions within a manageable range, prioritize stability and coexistence, encourage communication, and privilege a constructive working relationship in areas of common interest without trampling on the other party's system, values and regional commitments.

The Shanghai Communiqué era in China-US relations may be receding into the past but its lessons remain just as enduringly relevant in sketching the new framework for the 21st century age of US-China strategic competition. In Shanghai, the two sides had focused on the big picture and were not shy to voice their differences. No effort was made to mask their divergent stances. Just as importantly, no effort was spared to situate these divergent perspectives within a broader framework of stable, cooperative and peaceful coexistence.

On Nov 16, 2021, almost exactly one year earlier to the day they met in Bali, Xi and Biden held an important virtual meeting. In his remarks, Xi suggested that the two sides adopt a "peaceful coexistence, no conflict, no confrontation" bottom line and sincerely adhere to it. For his part, Biden spoke of the need to manage strategic risks responsibly and equip the bilateral relationship with common sense "guardrails" so as to ensure that competition did not veer into conflict — a policy he reiterated in Bali.

Xi and Biden should now use their respective approaches as a common bottom line and articulate a new paradigm of ties founded on the principles of "stability and clear-eyed but constructive coexistence" for an era of strategic competition. In 2023, the two sides should commence work on an overarching document that juxtaposes, and memorializes, their divergent policy positions within a steadying new framework.

Much like the Shanghai Communiqué was an objective lesson in the constructive management of differences, a new framework could yet yield a balance of harmony between the goals pursued by Washington and Beijing and the requirements of the Asian and international systems at large.

In his famous treatise on European peacemaking in the wake of the Napoleonic Wars, Kissinger observed that the essence of wise international relations was the transformation of force into reciprocal agreement by identifying a principle of order that is based on a loose consensus among the parties on the nature of justice in the international system.

China and the US should commit to a relationship founded on these principles for this new era of strategic competition. Given the importance of their bilateral relationship to Asia and the world, it is essential that both Washington and Beijing rise above their parochial visions of ideology and justice and sculpt a durable consensus for the betterment of all.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

The author is a senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies in Washington, D.C.

What's next for China's relationship with EU?

By Ann Buel

The recent visits of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Council President Charles Michel to China highlight the importance of China-European Union relations. The importance of Sino-EU relations was also underscored by a rare event the influential Brussels-based Friends of Europe held on Dec 1, the day of Michel's visit to Beijing.

The Friends of Europe's event, the "Europe-China Forum — tackling increasing global challenges: prioritizing constructive cooperation", was attended among others by officials of China's Mission to the EU, the European External Action Service, the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Although the EU is likely to focus more on transatlantic relations, the coming year will also witness the narrowing of the diplomatic gap between the EU and China, and the establishment of a more diversified and multipolar EU foreign policy based on realities. According to European Parliament Secretary General Klaus Welle, along with China, the EU will also focus on Brazil, India and the rest of Asia-Pacific in its foreign policy, because it is important to develop a world that is safe, enriching and enabling, in order to cope with the global challenges.

Everyone in Europe agrees that decoupling from China is impossible for a number of reasons. It is the world's second-largest economy in nominal GDP terms and the largest in terms of purchasing power parity. This is in contrast with the United States administration's outlook, whose official policy, as confirmed by the recent meeting of the US-EU Trade and Technology Council, appears to be to continue pursuing the hard-line approach.

But, as the head of the China unit at the OECD, Karim Dahou, said, it is necessary to engage with China to establish the global economic order so as to tackle the most urgent global problem: climate change.

China's economic growth, despite the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, is incredible. For example, in 2021, China's GDP reached $18 trillion. China is also the main trading partner of almost 130 countries, and its economy is about 80 percent that of the US.

There is massive footprint of China on almost every industry and economic sector of the EU, with a number of them being highly interdependent based on intra-industry trade. Also, China supplies almost 100 percent of the solar panels imported by the EU, and accounts for about 50 percent of all new ships built globally. To top it all, China is well integrated into the global value chains.

According to German Ambassador to China Patricia Flor, China remains an important business partner of Germany, and there is a need to build an open, fair and transparent global economy based on World Trade Organization rules.

And since China is both a partner and a competitor, the EU needs to pursue cooperation through competition, especially given China's efforts to become self-reliant in technologies. As for major areas of cooperation, they could be e-commerce, and green and digital technologies, with the EU making efforts to build a level playing field in reciprocity, market access and equal treatment. The EU also needs to diversify and further develop its economy with the aim of realizing strategic autonomy, broadening the supply chains, and diversifying investments in the "Indo-Pacific" region.

According to Liang Linlin, director of communication at the Chinese Chamber of Commerce in the EU, Chinese companies, especially those seeking to invest in Europe, face many problems due to the unequal business conditions in the EU. The biggest investors in China are from Germany, France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

Given the nature of products and services in today's world, almost all of them need long and complex supply chains. Due to this fact, China's strict measures in the past three years to contain the pandemic here made doing business in the country very difficult, Bettina Schoen-Behanzin, of EU Chamber of Commerce in China, said. Under such conditions, EU businesses began building two different supply chains, which is a long-drawn and costly process.

But with China easing anti-pandemic measures, it is expected that things will soon improve.

There is also the challenge of attracting investment due to China's relatively slow GDP growth in the past three pandemic-ridden years. So, as Schoen-Behanzin suggests, China must focus on further deepening reform and opening-up, engage in dialogue with other governments and provide constructive feedback to achieve faster economic recovery.

But it is also important that the EU cooperate with China to achieve the de-carbonization goals, especially when it comes to solar batteries, and other green technologies, without having to slow down the industrialization process, said Jacob Werksman, principal adviser to the Directorate-General for Climate Action of the European Commission, because the supply chains for new technologies are very complex and will become even more complex.

In conclusion, the EU will increasingly engage with China, and the rest of the economies in the "Indo-Pacific "region in a number of domains. The recent EU-US tensions due to the restrictions on EU entities to access the green funds of the Inflation Reduction Act reflect the EU's willingness to strengthen its strategic autonomy, pursue its own climate policy and build wider coalitions with its international partners.

The ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict, the deteriorating socioeconomic conditions in the EU, weakening European military reserves, and European Parliament election in 2024 highlight the need for the EU to look for a diverse set of development partners, because that could provide it with a variety of options to pursue its goals in a progressive, enriching and growth-facilitating way.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

The author is a former officer of the European Commission.