In Colombia, fresh peace talks met with hope, skepticism

Peace talks in Colombia between the government and the rebel National Liberation Army, or ELN, the country's latest attempt at ending decades of armed conflict, carry great expectations.

Negotiations between the administration of President Gustavo Petro and the ELN resumed on Feb 13 in Mexico City after stalling in early January.

Petro announced a cease-fire after he took office in August, and the government managed to make agreements with several groups. However, participation by the ELN, the largest rebel group, holds the key to any lasting peace, and negotiations in Caracas, Venezuela, in November ended with no clear agreement.

The ELN's chief negotiator, Israel Ramirez, better known by the alias Pablo Beltran, said the aim of these latest talks was to bring about "transformations that make it possible to put an end to the armed conflict and achieve a comprehensive and lasting peace".

However, D'mar Cordoba, a lawyer and political analyst in Bogota, noted that the ELN has said that peace is not synonymous with leaving weapons behind or achieving seats at the Congress, as members of the FARC rebel group did in 2016.

"This is the statement that should be of most concern to Colombians, because if the issue is not to lay down their arms, then what kind of peace are they talking about? Can there be peace with weapons out of the control of the state?" Cordoba said.

Petro rose to power last year thanks partly to his promises to bring total peace to the country. A former member of the M-19 rebel group, his approach has contrasted with the increasing use of force by previous Colombian administrations.

Peace, however, has been elusive. The ELN, with some 3,000 fighters, has control over large parts of rural Colombia. Farmers in those areas have long depended for their livelihood on the coca crop, a plant that various groups and gangs unlawfully process into cocaine.

In the past, the ELN has suffered splits and rivalries, preventing the group from taking a united approach. It also had an obscure command structure. Its chief, Eliecer Herlinto Chamorro, also known by the alias Antonio Garcia, has said that the internal fighting has ended and that all the group's fighters support the new initiative.

"I'm optimistic but maintain a high degree of skepticism about what may happen in Mexico," said John Marulanda, president of the Colombian Association of Retired Officers of the Military Forces.

Ramirez, the ELN negotiator, has referred to the narcotics trade by saying that an agreement should provide an alternative anti-drug policy that is no longer based on repression or war. As the government has little presence in ELN-held areas, it may be difficult for the economic ambitions of the talks to become reality.

Despite its stated desire to be part of a nationwide peace deal, the ELN has long held out for a separate agreement with the government. Whether other groups will be happy with this is not clear.

Petro faces the tough task of moving his country forward economically, having achieved only a patchwork of deals with various rebel groups operating across the territory.

Enrique Gomez, a former presidential candidate and head of the conservative National Salvation Movement opposition party, opposes negotiations with the ELN, as he believes the group could be lacking any real intention to reach a peace deal.

"The ELN guerrillas, because of the history of negotiations over the last 40 years, have no intention of recognizing the legitimacy of the Colombian state. The only thing they seek in the negotiation process is to grow militarily," Gomez said.

Mexico, Brazil, Norway, Venezuela, Chile and Cuba are the guarantors of these peace talks. What they will have to guarantee at the talks' conclusion depends on the sincerity of the parties to the dispute. There has been no official word so far on how the discussions are going or whether any progress has been made.