Erdogan win hits US' geopolitical shift plan

Mideast nations could turn away from Washington's maneuver, experts say

ANKARA — Incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday beat his challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu in a presidential runoff to begin his third term in office.

The election was seen as the best chance for the pro-West opposition to beat Erdogan, but the result narrowly missed Washington's expectations.

Erdogan won 52.14 percent of the vote, compared with 47.86 percent for Kilicdaroglu, beating the strong opposition coalition, dubbed the "table of six".

The 74-year-old pro-West politician, Kilicdaroglu, represents a coalition of six political parties, and probably has no chance to run in the next election in five years.

Neither secured more than 50 percent of the votes needed to call a winner in the first round, and an election runoff was held on Sunday for the first time for the presidency.

There was no doubt Washington saw Kilicdaroglu as a much better choice and expected that a geopolitical shift of Turkiye might happen if he won. US Ambassador to Turkiye Jeff Flake met Kilicdaroglu in March, implying the United States would back him to be the new leader of the country.

The result, however, shows Erdogan is still dominant in his country and his political career is not coming to an end. It is also a clear sign that Erdogan's tough attitude toward the US is popular among the Turkish people, as most Turks might not see the US as the "City upon a Hill" anymore.

Washington has long been reckoning Erdogan's administration hampers the country's democracy, and the opposition parties are getting weaker and promoting secularism is not on the agenda of Ankara. The rift between Ankara and Washington becomes wider due to their different values.

Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, a close ally of Erdogan, said ahead of the election that Washington is seeking to impose its hegemony on global affairs and "the whole world hates America", and that the meeting between the US envoy and Kilicdaroglu would further alienate Ankara from Washington.

Turkiye's balance strategy between Russia and the US upsets Washington. The cooperation between Ankara and Moscow seems to be increasing in different dimensions. As an energy-dependent country, Turkiye receives about 45 percent of its natural gas and significant amounts of oil and coal from Russia.

NATO membership

After the Ukraine crisis broke out, Turkiye refused to follow Western sanctions on Russia, and instead, its NATO membership actually boosted its cooperation with Russia.

Li Yanan, an expert on the Turkish issue and associate researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told Xinhua that after Erdogan's successful reelection, he will still maintain a balanced foreign policy and play a more important role in the Ukraine crisis, and prioritize Ankara's own interests in its relationship with the US and the West.

On Sweden's accession to NATO, Li said it still depends on whether Sweden can meet the conditions proposed by Erdogan.

However, during Erdogan's third term, Turkiye would not easily approve Sweden's NATO membership, as long as Ankara's demands are not met. Erdogan accused Sweden of being soft on groups Ankara considers to be terrorists.

Turkiye on Tuesday called on Sweden to prosecute those responsible for projecting the flag of an outlawed group onto the parliament building in Stockholm, on the day of Turkish elections.

Li believes Erdogan will not give up Turkiye's NATO membership, as it is still very important for Ankara, and is also one of the best bargaining chips to deal with Russia.

Following Saudi Arabia's recent reconciliation with Iran, Erdogan's win in the presidential election could further make major powers in the Middle East turn away from US manipulation, experts note. This could be another fiasco for the US' Middle East policy after the invasion of Iraq.