Experts: Iran sanctions to raise risk of confrontation

Western countries resorting to sanctions while failing to honor their own obligations under a nuclear deal with Iran, could potentially heighten the risk of confrontations and potentially destabilize the Middle East region, analysts say.

They also said the sanctions may compel Iran to increase its nuclear activities against the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a 2015 nuclear deal Iran signed with the five permanent members of the Security Council, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the US, plus Germany, known as the "P5+1". The US unilaterally abandoned the deal in 2018.

The United Nations has repeatedly said in the past that the sanctions were in violation of human rights of the people of Iran.

"If the sanctions are retained, there is a possibility that Iran will increase its nuclear activities. This could include expanding its uranium enrichment capabilities, increasing stockpiles of enriched uranium, or even pursuing activities that are prohibited under the JCPOA," Abdul Wahed Jalal Nori, assistant professor at the International Islamic University Malaysia, told China Daily.

Iran has insisted its nuclear activities were peaceful.

Abdul Wahed, who is also author of State-building under Foreign Occupation: The Case of Iraq 2003-2008, said it could also lead to an arms race in the region, with neighboring countries feeling compelled to enhance their own missile capabilities in response.

"This escalation could potentially destabilize the already volatile Middle East and increase the risk of conflicts or military confrontations," said Abdul Wahed.

In a news conference held on Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani, in response to a meeting of the UN Security Council last week, slammed Britain, France and Germany for their "failure to honor their obligations" under the JCPOA.

Violation of pact

Mehran Kamrava, director of the Iranian Studies Unit at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Doha, told China Daily that Britain and the European Union "are now violating the terms of the agreement", which they signed in 2015 with Iran under the auspices of the JCPOA.

"During that agreement, they agreed to lift the sanctions by now. But of course, the agreement has been more rebound and dead since 2018 when the United States unilaterally decided to withdraw from it," said Kamrava, who is also professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar.

Kamrava noted the EU and Britain "have also decided to add to the sanctions and effectively kill the JCPOA".

Gokhan Ereli, Gulf Studies coordinator at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies in Turkiye, told China Daily it is worth noting that Saudi Arabia has extended an invitation to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to visit Riyadh in recent months.

Ereli said, it was essential to acknowledge that the invitations "remain fragile and susceptible to cancellation in light of negative developments that may arise in Saudi-Iranian relations or the relationships between the United States and Iran, as well as the European Union and Iran".

jan@chinadailyapac.com