Local elections see coalition suffering blow

AfD gains in 2 German states, reflecting public frustration with federal politics

The three parties of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition government suffered a major setback in Sunday's local elections in Bavaria and Hesse while opposition parties, especially the right-wing Alternative for Germany, or AfD, surged.

In Bavaria, the largest German state in territory, the Christian Social Union, or CSU, is projected to win 37.7 percent of the votes, while former chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, a sister party of CSU, is forecast to win 34.6 percent of the votes.

AfD was seen as the biggest winner on Sunday after it secured the second place in Hesse and third place in Bavaria, both former West Germany's states.

AfD obtained 18.4 percent of the votes in Hesse, up 5.3 percentage points from the last election in 2018. In Bavaria, AfD was projected to win 14.6 percent of the votes, up 4.4 percentage points from 2018. Scholz's center-left Social Democratic Party, or SPD, received only 8.4 percent in Bavaria and 15.1 percent in Hesse, down 1.3 and 4.7 percentage points, respectively.

A nationwide opinion poll released in July by Infratest dimap showed AfD having 20 percent of the voter support across the country, ahead of SPD and trailing only the center-right alliance of CDU and CSU.

The Free Democratic Party, a junior partner in Scholz's coalition government, won only 3 percent of the votes in Bavaria and 5 percent in Hesse. The Greens, another party in the coalition, also lost ground in both states from 2018.

German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, an SPD member, lost in the race for governor of Hesse, her home state. She described the result as "very disappointing".

The local elections were widely viewed by many as midterm election for Scholz, whose coalition government is facing an economic recession, partly as a result of the energy crisis following the Russia-Ukraine conflict and infighting among coalition parties over issues such as budgets and climate laws.

About 9.4 million people were eligible to vote in Bavaria and 4.3 million in Hesse, accounting for more than 20 percent of the country's total eligible voters. Voter turnout was 73.3 percent in Bavaria, up 1 percentage point from 2018, while in Hesse, the turnout was 66 percent, down 1.3 percentage points.

Carsten Brzeski of ING Research said CDU will strengthen its opposition role at the national level through the elections.

"However, the question of who will lead the party into the next federal elections two years from now remains unanswered," he wrote on ING website on Monday.

The strong AfD gains illustrate that the party is more than a protest party in East German states, he said.

"The party's gains show that frustration with both the content and style of federal politics seems to be growing in the entire country. The next big topic in German politics will be whether the other parties will start some kind of cooperation with AfD," he said.

Brzeski lamented at the combined 30 percent popular vote by the coalition parties. "These results can either lead to a full reset of the political agenda in Berlin or to a de facto standstill," he said.

Affecting prospects

Carl Bildt, co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and former Swedish prime minister, said the results of the important German regional elections in Hesse and Bavaria could well affect the policies and prospects in Berlin.

"Bleak for SPD and Berlin in the Hessen and Bavaria German regional elections today, with right-wing AfD being the second-biggest party and the only real winner. It's obviously the migration issue making its comeback on the European scene," he wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Sunday.

In Luxembourg, election results early on Monday showed the three-party coalition led by liberal Prime Minister Xavier Bettel lost its decadelong hold on power in tight parliamentary elections, mostly because of a poor showing by the Green party.

Agencies contributed to this story.