Pressure mounts on Houthis to de-escalate attacks

The calls by the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council and the international community to de-escalate Red Sea attacks by Yemen's Houthi militia may help ease shipping woes as a broader conflict would not be in the best interest of the region, say analysts.

They also said for a "regional war" to materialize, global actors "would need to make determined statements for war", but that "such an environment does not exist" and underscored that Red Sea attacks were being shaped by events unfolding in Gaza.

On Jan 4, the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, or PLC, warned the Houthi group against continuing its attacks on ships in the Red Sea, according to a report by Xinhua News Agency. The warning came as representatives from varied countries attending an open meeting of the UN Security Council on Houthi attacks on Jan 3 called for de-escalation.

Further, in a PLC meeting held in the Saudi capital of Riyadh, the Yemeni leaders cautioned that such attacks could draw Yemen into an "international war" and exacerbate the human suffering caused by the yearslong military conflict in the country.

After Hamas attacked Israel on Oct 7, the Houthis stepped up their assault on the Red Sea, targeting Israeli ships or ships bound for Israel to pressure Tel Aviv to stop its aggression on Gaza.

The US had earlier formed a multinational naval task force to deter the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. The PLC warning came almost two weeks after Dec 23, when it and the Houthis were committed to implementing a nationwide cease-fire, which United Nations Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg has welcomed.

Arhama Siddiqa, a research fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad in Pakistan, told China Daily the ongoing conflict in Gaza has "unexpectedly become a catalyst for unity among previously fragmented factions in Yemen", particularly those rallying behind the Houthis.

She said past cease-fires in Yemen have collapsed due to violations and mutual mistrust rooted in ongoing grievances and shifting power dynamics and that notably, the PLC has distanced itself from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, emphasizing a collective desire for lasting peace.

Simmering tensions

In terms of regional tensions, recent attacks in Iran and Lebanon drew responses reminiscent of previous incidents. Hezbollah's measured response, akin to Iran's after Qassem Soleimani's death, suggests a reluctance in the region to escalate conflicts, said Siddiqa.

"The intention behind these responses, emphasizing warnings and not aiming to cause casualties, signals a broader reluctance to become embroiled in a larger conflict," she added.

At a news briefing on Jan 4, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said the Red Sea was an important international trade route for goods and energy and that keeping the region safe and stable "serves the common interest of the international community".

Kaan Devecioglu, a senior research fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, a think tank in Ankara, told China Daily that progress against the Houthi threat also seems necessary and that alternative routes "will be a temporary choice".

He noted that for a "regional war" to materialize, global actors would need to make determined statements, "but such an environment does not exist".

Devecioglu also said the world may see a decrease in Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea in the days ahead, although "this will also be shaped by events in Gaza".