France's new Cabinet fails to heal divisions

The recently formed government of France's Prime Minister Michel Barnier appears to closely align with President Emmanuel Macron's policies, yet many critics argue that the Cabinet does not adequately reflect voter preferences from last July's elections.

On Saturday, the president's chief of staff announced the formation of a 39-member center-right government, with the aim of ending months of political uncertainty that followed a snap election that resulted in a hung parliament.

The new government's first major challenge will be to address the budget deficit and submit a 2025 financial plan for France next month.

On Sunday evening, in his first public appearance since the Cabinet was announced, Barnier spoke on France 2 TV, saying: "I'm not going to further increase taxes on all French people, neither on the most modest, nor on people who work, nor on the middle classes. But I cannot exclude the wealthiest from the national effort to rectify the situation."

Laure Salvaing, director general of the polling institute Verian France, said on France 5 TV talk show It's in the Air on Saturday: "Initial polls show a roughly even split: a third of French people support him, a third disapprove, and a third are neutral. He's well-known among older demographics, largely due to his Brexit role."

The new Cabinet was assembled after two weeks of intense negotiations, but it is seen by many as imbalanced. Macron had set Barnier an ambitious goal: to create a government that comes as close to national unity as possible.

However, that ideal appears to have fallen short. The only prominent figure from the left to join the administration was former Socialist MP Didier Migaud, who now serves as president of the High Authority for Transparency in Public Life, meaning he holds the second-highest position in the new Cabinet.

The political tug-of-war between Macron's camp and the conservative The Republicans, or LR, has resulted in a government that is evenly split between members from Renaissance and from the right-wing LR party. But this does not mean that Barnier's government enjoys broad support across the political spectrum.

The New Popular Front, or NFP, coalition of leftist parties has already indicated its intent to introduce an automatic motion of censure in the National Assembly.

Far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon dismissed the Cabinet as "a government of the general election losers" and called for the government's removal "as soon as possible".

Former prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, speaking on a state-run TV station on Saturday, cautioned, however, that "all those who complicate Barnier's task will be judged severely, because there is no other solution".

Criticism has also come from Socialist Party Chairman Olivier Faure, who labelled Barnier's administration "a reactionary government that gives democracy the finger".

Meanwhile, Jordan Bardella, leader of the far-right National Rally, has condemned the Cabinet as having "no future whatsoever".

Although National Rally has yet to formally declare its stance on the motion of censure, its opposition could prove fatal for Barnier's administration if National Rally's demands are not met, casting further doubt on Macron's goal of national unity.

A fragile government

Many political experts view Barnier's government as vulnerable. Chloe Morin, a political scientist and author, offered a sobering analysis in the French daily newspaper Ouest France on Monday, saying: "This government is extremely vulnerable, for several reasons. Firstly, the left is already up in arms, with the Socialist Party warning they'll table a no-confidence motion.

"Secondly, the government is at the mercy of (National Rally leader) Marine Le Pen's whims. The National Rally could topple the Cabinet if they choose to support a no-confidence vote."

Morin also highlighted the enormous fiscal challenges facing Barnier's government.

"The equation is nearly impossible to solve," Morin said. "I'm at a loss as to how they'll manage to pass a budget."

International media outlets have also expressed concern about the new government's stability, with the Spanish newspaper El Mundo speculating that the right-leaning administration "may not last long".

Salvaing, the director general of the polling institute, noted that "Barnier's strength lies in his negotiation skills, particularly his experience in European politics. However, with significant domestic challenges ahead, the new prime minister must now prove himself capable of navigating France's increasingly fractured political landscape".