Kenya's census warns of ecosystem collapse

Kenya is facing a looming ecological crisis, with a new national wildlife census warning that several iconic species are at risk of disappearing and the country could face "irreversible ecosystem collapse" within the next decade without urgent intervention.

The 2024-25 census released by Kenya's Wildlife Research and Training Institute, or WRTI, reveals that while elephant and rhino populations continue to recover, many other species are in steep decline as pressures on natural ecosystems intensify.

According to findings released in Nairobi on Thursday, populations of plains game, including hartebeest, wildebeest, topi and sable antelope, have continued to decline due to habitat loss, human-wildlife conflict and mounting competition from livestock.

Compared to 2021, elephant populations remain stable and continue to grow slowly, rising from 36,280 to 41,952 this year.

Black rhinos also posted steady recovery, increasing from 1,812 to 2,102, while the southern white rhino population reached 1,041, and the critically endangered northern white rhino remains at two individuals.

Combined, rhino numbers reflect a 4 percent annual increase due to intensive protection and breeding interventions.

However, the critically endangered hirola, one of the world's rarest antelopes, recorded one of the sharpest declines after their numbers fell from 497 in 2021 to 245 in 2025, placing the species on the verge of extinction.

The number of rare roan antelope increased from 15 to 21. However, the figure remains extremely low, underscoring the need for intensified recovery programs.

Researchers cautioned that even within protected areas, some species are teetering on the brink of extinction.

Alarming situation

Kenya's President William Ruto described the situation as alarming, noting that wildlife protection is directly tied to job creation, tourism growth and community livelihoods.

"Wildlife remains central to our identity, economy and ecological security. Our protected areas and conservancies are the backbone of tourism, one of the country's top foreign exchange earners and a major source of livelihoods," he said at the launch of the census report.

The East African nation's tourism sector is projected to contribute more than $9 billion to the national economy this year, which is equivalent to more than 7 percent of gross domestic product.

"Let us now move from knowledge to action … ensuring that Kenya remains a global leader in biodiversity conservation," Ruto said.

Tourism Cabinet Secretary Rebecca Miano said the results demonstrate both resilience and urgency.

"This report tells a story of Kenyan resilience, confirming the triumphant recovery of key species such as the black rhino and the mountain bongo," she noted.

Silvia Museiya, Kenya's principal secretary in the state department for wildlife, noted that rapid development, climate shocks and shifting land-use patterns are fragmenting habitats faster than wildlife can adapt.

The report recommends immediate government action, including integrating wildlife ecosystem plans into county spatial plans, securing critical wildlife corridors, and fast-tracking regulations under the Wildlife Conservation and Management Act to define wildlife corridors and red-list endangered species and threatened ecosystems.

victor@chinadailyafrica.com