US experts see stormy year ahead

As a turbulent 2025 ended, three US experts who spoke separately to China Daily said political and social tensions will extend into 2026.

They point to midterm elections, persistent economic concerns and lasting institutional strains as key factors. Their opinions echo a Pew Research Center survey in 2025, which found that eight out of 10 US citizens said Republican and Democratic voters cannot agree on basic facts.

With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, and every House seat and about a third of Senate seats on the ballot, Anthony Moretti, an associate professor in the Communication and Organizational Leadership Department at Robert Morris University, anticipates a charged atmosphere.

"So much of the oxygen in 2026 is going to be taken up by conversations about polls, about which party is winning or where the electorate is going," Moretti told China Daily. If President Donald Trump's party falters, backlash may intensify. "He is probably going to especially want to lash out again at immigrants. He is probably going to certainly lash out at Democrats," he said.

Sourabh Gupta, a senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies, also expects continued polarization. "I can see a great deal of polarization for the next few months ahead," he said. "Both parties will then look to post-November to review where they should be, but until November, I think it's going to be knives out and it's going to be a difficult period."

Gupta sees affordability as a persistent top priority. "The cost of living and affordability issue is going to remain the No 1 issue," he said. "I don't see progress or good things happening on that front."

He doubts promises will materialize. "Even though Mr Trump is trying to suggest that good things will happen in the economy, which will help employment, jobs, wages, and others, I don't see that there is a good amount of investment happening," he said.

"Whether that all translates down into actual jobs and actual wage rises, I'm skeptical on that front."

He also expected inflation to continue. "We will see perhaps inflation, still the persistence of inflation, and inflation might even go up,"Gupta said.

Erratic instances

Gupta raised concerns about gun violence amid divisions. "These sorts of erratic instances are just going to get more and more," he said. Politicians can worsen risks. "It's probably going to get worse, not better, when you have politicians fanning some of these flames," he warned.

Jack Midgley, principal consultant at Midgley & Company and adjunct associate professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, views problems as structural. He also noted that donor influence impedes compromise. "The outsized role played by mega-donors tied to individual issues or business interests" makes lawmakers push hard on those positions, he said. "They are less willing to make compromises — even with members of their own parties."

In his view, this weakens checks and balances. "The real danger comes from destroying the machinery of government," he said.

Midgley recalled the warning of the first US president George Washington. "He foresaw the dangers of powerful political parties and the risks that future parties would 'subvert the power of the people'," he said.

"We see this today in the continued increase of presidential power, and the declining roles of both Congress and the courts," he said, pointing out that power has shifted to the executive.

Midgley sees the recent US military action in Venezuela as a further example of this trend toward greater executive assertiveness and a departure from the rules-based international order. "By removing Venezuela's head of state and asserting US control of the government and oil resources, the US has destabilized Venezuela, the region and the international order," he told China Daily.

"Across the region, national governments must now question their relationships with the US, the adequacy of their defenses, and their relationships with other countries that may help protect them from US interference," he added.

On an international scale, Midgley said the action undermines established norms. "At the global level, the lawless and violent US action legitimizes the ideas of economic spheres of influence and imperial overthrow of established governments."

Midgley sees no rapid solutions to the turmoil. "The profound damage already done to the machinery of the US government, and to America's international relationships, will take years to address," he said, "even if the American people find the willingness to do so".

The experts foresee more tensions in 2026. Elections will heighten rhetoric, economic pressures will endure and institutional weaknesses will continue. As Gupta put it, it will be a "difficult period" for US politics.

yifanxu@chinadailyusa.com