Innovation boosts China's trade tempo

The country's industrial upgrading has expanded global supply, improved production efficiency and created more choices for consumers and businesses worldwide.

"Rather than displacing other economies, China's technological progress strengthens global industrial and supply chains by delivering competitive products, accelerating innovation and supporting the worldwide green and digital transitions," she said.

Echoing that view, Ding Rijia, a professor of industrial economy at China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, said that following Europe's energy shortage, demand for imported green equipment has risen sharply, while many developing economies are only beginning their energy transition, leaving substantial long-term demand unmet.

"China's export growth of technology-intensive and green products reflects its ability to respond to genuine global demand, with additional supply emerging because demand already exists," said Ding, adding the narrative that China's exports are driven by "overcapacity" and are undermining Western manufacturing is not supported by market realities.

That assessment is also reflected in the investment strategies of multinational companies operating in China. Stefan Floeck, ABB's division president of IEC Low Voltage Motors, said China will remain central to the Swedish-Swiss technology company's global motor business as the country's industrial upgrading and green transition continue to drive demand for more energy-efficient equipment.

"To capture these opportunities, we will continue investing in local research and development, manufacturing and supply chains to better serve Chinese customers while reinforcing China as an innovation hub and export base within the company's global network," said Floeck.

ABB's low-voltage motor business has invested more than 150 million yuan in recent years to upgrade its Shanghai manufacturing base, including research and development testing laboratories and production lines. Its domestic supply chain also supports exports from China to overseas markets.

Despite headwinds such as rising trade protectionism and persistent geopolitical uncertainties, China's exports are likely to remain resilient in the second half, said Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank. He attributed the outlook to the global AI investment cycle, the United States' relatively moderate tariff policy and measures to strengthen manufacturers' competitiveness.

Similar views were expressed by Lynn Song, chief economist for China at Dutch bank ING. "Exports have been one of China's primary growth engines in recent years, and this year's acceleration continues to beat expectations," he said.

"China's exports over the first half of the year already nearly match the levels seen through the first seven months of 2025, and the base case is for solid export growth to continue. Strong external demand remains one of the key pillars supporting China's industrial activity," said Song.

"It remains a key engine of growth for China and is likely to continue playing that role for the rest of the year," he said, while cautioning that potential new tariffs from the European Union and proposed US secondary sanctions related to Russian energy exports could pose risks to the country's export outlook.