African nations face heightened risk as El Nino looms

African countries have been urged to step up preparations for what could become one of the strongest El Nino events on record, as climate experts warn that heavy rains, floods, droughts and other extreme weather conditions could trigger widespread humanitarian and economic impacts across the continent from October.

Meteorological and climate experts say forecasts point to a high likelihood of a strong El Nino developing later this year, prompting governments and regional institutions to accelerate disaster preparedness measures to reduce the risks posed by flooding, food insecurity, water shortages and disease outbreaks.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, or WMO, forecasts from leading global climate centers indicate that seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2.9 degrees Celsius in key monitoring regions, signaling the development of a strong El Nino event.

The WMO also forecasts a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate pattern in which the western Indian Ocean is warmer than average while the eastern Indian Ocean is cooler. Combined with a strengthening El Nino, the two climate phenomena are expected to intensify weather extremes, increasing the risk of drought and flooding, particularly across African countries bordering the Indian Ocean basin.

Moses Vilakati, the African Union Commissioner for agriculture, rural development, blue economy and sustainable environment, said the projected El Nino could be the strongest since 1950, with peak intensity expected between November and February.

He warned that many regions across the continent are likely to experience severe droughts, devastating floods, prolonged heat waves, disruptions to food production, water shortages, disease outbreaks and increased humanitarian needs.

"These impacts will not only affect vulnerable households; they will also place considerable pressure on national economies, public finances and regional stability," he said.

Vilakati said lessons from the 2023-24 El Nino should serve as a call for urgency, preparedness and collective action. The event, he said, affected more than 71 million people across Southern Africa, while devastating floods in Eastern Africa displaced communities, destroyed infrastructure and disrupted millions of lives.

"History has repeatedly demonstrated that natural hazards become humanitarian disasters when preparedness is inadequate," he said. "Yet, history has also shown that timely action saves lives, protects economies and safeguards development gains."

Vilakati said preparedness requires political leadership, sustained investment, effective institutions and partnerships built on trust.

The African Development Bank estimates that the looming El Nino could inflict between $10 billion and $20 billion in economic losses across Africa, reducing GDP by 1 to 2 percent in the worst-affected countries.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, parts of the Horn of Africa that receive their main rainfall between October and December are likely to experience above-average rainfall and widespread flooding. Flood-affected areas could see significant population displacement, damage to infrastructure and crops, loss of life, and worsening food insecurity.

Across Southern Africa, rainfall is expected to be below average between October and April. Since maize is the region's staple crop and is highly vulnerable to water stress, below-average rainfall could significantly reduce the 2026-27 harvest, potentially affecting regional cereal supplies. However, bumper harvests recorded in parts of the region this year may help cushion the impact.

edithmutethya@chinadaily.com.cn