Climate change poses flood threat in Pakistan

Unusually vulnerable

Chitral-based glacier researcher Hamid Ahmed Mir, who has visited many of these sites, told Dawn that the region's glaciers are unusually vulnerable because of their small size.

With the exception of Tirich-Concordia and Chiantar — the latter feeding the Kabul River — nearly all Hindu Kush glaciers are small, making them highly sensitive to temperature spikes.

These "water towers" are likely to assume even greater importance over the coming years as the water war between India and Pakistan intensifies.

He also pointed to steep slope gradients and high seismic activity, noting five to six fault lines run beneath Chitral alone, alongside a high frequency of minor earthquakes.

Much of the region's development has been unplanned, often ignoring its fragile ecosystem and lacking proper risk assessments or environmental impact studies.

For example, he cited the use of explosives to dig the 3-kilometer headrace tunnel for the Golen Gol Hydropower Project, inaugurated in 2018 — two years before a major GLOF struck the valley.

Mir also pointed to Chitral's status as an airshed valley, where surrounding high mountains trap air, dust and pollutants. His recent research on dust generation from traffic on the largely unpaved, poorly maintained, and decade-long-under-construction Chitral-Mastuj Road found that the 110-km stretch could be producing approximately 40,000 metric tons of airborne or fugitive dust every year, including nearly 9,600 tons of respirable PM10 particulate matter.

"The Chitral-Mastuj Road is a vital transportation corridor that supports communities, trade, and tourism. However, its predominantly unpaved surface also represents a significant source of fugitive dust," the research paper noted, adding that preliminary engineering estimates suggest around 28,000 tons of that dust settles within the surrounding valley annually.

The paper warned the implications extend far beyond roadside nuisance, as dust affects human health, agriculture, alpine ecosystems, water resources, and glacier stability — potentially amplifying the impacts of climate change in one of Pakistan's most environmentally sensitive mountain regions.

It recommended improved road surfacing, dust suppression, vegetation restoration, and systematic environmental monitoring to protect both local air quality and long-term water security in Chitral and further downstream.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa PDMA Director-General Arifullah Awan told Dawn the provincial government was pursuing both mitigation and adaptation strategies to secure the region against climate threats.

At least 85 early warning systems, rain gauges and other sensors have been installed across Lower and Upper Chitral, Upper Dir, Swat and Upper Kohistan with support from the United Nations Development Programme.

In addition, community-based disaster risk management committees — including union council secretaries and local members — have been formed, with alert times ranging from 20 to 35 minutes. To protect the early warning systems from vandalism, district — and tehsil-level committees have also been set up, with complaints lodged in the past over damage to the equipment.

The government is also pursuing afforestation, environment-friendly infrastructure, and climate-resilient construction as part of its broader mitigation and adaptation strategy, Awan said.

DAWN, PAKISTAN