Data center electricity consumption to nearly quadruple by 2030

Driven by an explosive surge in artificial intelligence computing demand, electricity consumption by China's data centers is projected to nearly quadruple by 2030, reaching 774 terawatt-hours, according to a newly released industry report.

By the end of the decade, data centers will account for 6 percent of China's total electricity consumption, triple the current proportion. This share is forecast to climb further to 17 percent by 2060, global research firm Wood Mackenzie said in its latest report "Rewiring China's Grid for the AI Era".

The market is witnessing an exponential boom fueled by AI. Intensive AI training is driving up power density, necessitating massive capacity expansions and upgrades to underlying power infrastructure.

Simultaneously, the rapid adoption of AI inference applications is generating a continuous, 24/7 baseload on the grid. Consequently, while overall national electricity demand growth is moderating, data center power consumption continues to buck the trend with robust expansion, it said.

This momentum is already evident. According to the National Energy Administration, electricity used by internet data services surged 44 percent year-on-year to 49.4 billion kilowatt-hours in the first half.

Wu Liqiang, an official with the China Electricity Council, said electricity demand from emerging industries continued to grow rapidly during the first half of this year and the momentum is expected to continue.

Power consumption by internet data services in the first six months is nearing the level recorded for the whole of 2024, he said.

Electricity consumption by China's high-tech and equipment manufacturing sector climbed 9.8 percent year-on-year to 600.8 billion kWh in the first half of 2026, accounting for 24.3 percent of manufacturing power use, Wu added.

Securing reliable, cost-competitive and low-carbon electricity has become the decisive factor for the site selection of new data centers. The report estimates that China's eight national computing hubs will continue to dominate the sector's spatial layout, hosting over 70 percent of total computing capacity through 2060.

However, due to localized grid capacity constraints, some new installations will inevitably spill over into renewable-rich areas outside these central hubs. China's western regions, boasting abundant land and rapidly expanding renewable energy bases, are emerging as the core hinterland for this transferred computing power, it said.

Meanwhile, core economic circles in the east will continue to handle latency-sensitive tasks, such as real-time AI inference and high-frequency financial services.

Policy is also pivoting to support this shift. China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) emphasizes the synergistic development of computing infrastructure and green power. A raft of energy policies — ranging from encouraging the direct supply of green power to cross-regional resource scheduling — is providing strong regulatory backing for this integration.

Crucially, this integration is transforming data centers from traditional "rigid, passive loads" into "flexible, adjustable resources" within the modern power system. Through the deep integration of new power supply architectures, battery energy storage and smart workload scheduling, data centers are acquiring unprecedented elasticity.

As the penetration rate of renewable energy steadily rises and green power mandates become stricter, Wood Mackenzie projects that carbon emissions from China's data center industry will peak by 2035, even as its overall green electricity demand continues to soar through 2060.

zhengxin@chinadaily.com.cn