Sweden's center-left secures narrow lead

STOCKHOLM — Preliminary results on Monday showed Sweden's center-left opposition bloc holding a narrow lead in the parliamentary election, boosting Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson's prospects of returning to power and ending four years of right-wing rule.

But a parliamentary lead does not guarantee a smooth path to government. Andersson faces the challenge of turning the bloc's seats into a workable government, as the four opposition parties remain divided on government composition and key policies.

Adding to the uncertainty, the tally is not yet complete. Late-arriving advance ballots, including ballots received from abroad, are due to be included in Wednesday's supplementary count.

With results reported from 95 percent of voting districts on Monday, the four opposition parties — the Social Democrats, the Center Party, the Left Party and the Greens — had a combined 176 seats in the 349-seat parliament and 49.5 percent of the vote. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's right-wing bloc, comprising the Moderate Party, the far-right Sweden Democrats, or SD, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals, had 173 seats and 49 percent of the vote.

Andersson's immediate challenge is forming a government. The Center Party has ruled out joining a government that includes the Left Party, while the Left Party has demanded cabinet representation. Swedish Television, or SVT, has described the clash as an "impossible equation".

Sweden's system of negative parliamentarism nevertheless leaves Andersson with alternatives. A prime minister can take office as long as fewer than 175 lawmakers vote against, meaning some opposition parties could remain outside the cabinet while an Andersson-led minority government takes office by voting for her or abstaining. Such a government would still need parliamentary support for budgets and major legislation.

Sweden has faced lengthy government talks before. After the 2018 election, it took 134 days to form a government. Ahead of this year's vote, Speaker of Parliament Andreas Norlen urged parties to reconsider some of their political "red lines".

Despite his bloc's narrow deficit in the preliminary count, Kristersson has signaled that he is not ready to give up his effort to form a government.

Kristersson's clearest potential opening is the Center Party. Once part of Sweden's traditional center-right Alliance, the party remains economically liberal and shares common ground with Kristersson's Moderate Party on several issues.

Difficult cooperation

But cooperation has become increasingly difficult over SD. Center Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist said in June that Kristersson had "disqualified himself" as a prime ministerial candidate, citing the Moderates' close ties with SD.

Kristersson may still seek the Center Party's support. Annika Freden, associate professor of political science at Lund University, said such outreach was expected but saw little prospect of success, noting that the Center Party is "fundamentally opposed to entering into an alliance with the far right".

SD emerged as one of the clearest losers of the election. SVT reported that an SD member described the result, if it holds, as a "double blow" — the party would lose its position as Sweden's second-largest party and see its support decline from the previous election.

The setback also clouds SD's ambition to enter government for the first time. Kristersson had opened the door before the election to bringing the party into government if the right-wing bloc retained power.

Yet SD's electoral losses may not erase its broader political influence. Although the party remained outside the cabinet over the past four years, it helped shape government policy through the Tido Agreement, particularly on migration, integration and crime.

The election also underscored how positions on migration have shifted across Sweden's political landscape. Andersson has pledged to maintain a restrictive migration policy, while SVT noted that the Social Democrats now stand relatively close to SD on migration compared with some of their prospective partners on the left.

Niklas Bolin, professor of political science at Mid Sweden University, said SD had been "extremely successful" in shaping migration policy, with positions considered controversial 10 or 15 years ago becoming "almost political mainstream".

"In that sense, SD won an important ideological battle," he said.

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