Mixed signals won't help mend Sino-Japanese relations

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi wants credit for being open to talks with China while, at the same time, maintaining a tougher security posture toward China. In Monday's speech to the Diet, she called China an "important neighbor" and promised to advance their "strategic relationship of mutual benefit". But in the very next breath she vowed to "firmly assert" Japan's positions on the East China Sea and the South China Sea and demanded that China behave "responsibly". The message was less a change of course than a change of packaging: Tokyo would like its businessmen to hear conciliation and Beijing to hear defiance.

That is hardly surprising. Takaichi's erroneous and dangerous remark on the Taiwan Strait nearly a year ago — that the Chinese mainland's "use of force on Taiwan" could constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan — has sent Sino-Japanese relations to their lowest point in decades. The costs of confrontation are becoming harder for Japan to ignore. Supply chains have suffered, business has complained and people-to-people exchanges have suffered. Yet the government's military policy is moving in the opposite direction, from stronger military capabilities to closer operational cooperation with the United States in the region. The prime minister's latest speech only gives the impression of moderation without yet demonstrating a real change in Japan's China policy.

Diplomacy, however, is not a matter of choosing whichever half of a sentence one prefers. China will judge Takaichi by what Japan does, not by how "warmly" she describes the relationship. And on that score, Monday's speech offered Beijing little evidence that Tokyo has addressed the fundamental concerns underlying the current difficulties in bilateral relations.

Takaichi's newfound "fondness" for stable relations has much to do with her government facing pressure not merely from Beijing but from Japanese businesses and voters who have to live with the consequences of her China policy. Her approval ratings have been sliding, adding urgency to a government that can ill afford another source of domestic discontent arising from inflation and lackluster economic growth. A conciliatory note about China doesn't cost much, but repairing a damaged relationship doesn't come cheap.

Besides, Japan's military policy is anything but conciliatory. Takaichi said that Japan would strengthen its military and intelligence capabilities and revise its three key military documents by the end of the year. Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has argued that nuclear weapons and nuclear-powered submarines should be discussed "without taboos", effectively testing the boundaries of postwar restraint. Japan and the US are also moving offensive missile capabilities closer to China's Taiwan region. During this month's so-called "Keen Sword" exercises, the US Marine Corps is due to deploy its NMESIS anti-ship missile system in Yonaguni, Japan's westernmost island, barely 110km from China's Taiwan island.

Japan's protest over the alleged killing of a woman in Okinawa by a US Marine offers another revealing contrast. Tokyo has demanded discipline and cooperation from Washington. Such protests are understandable. But similar crimes involving US military personnel have occurred repeatedly, highlighting longstanding concerns in Japan over the US military presence. Issuing strong words is easier than addressing the underlying problems in the security arrangement.

China, naturally, is watching the difference between rhetoric and conduct. On Sept 28, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told former Japanese foreign minister Takeshi Iwaya, president of the Japanese Association for the Promotion of International Trade, that the pressing task before Tokyo was to correct irresponsible remarks made on China's Taiwan region. He also urged Japan to adopt an objective and rational understanding of China and take the right attitude toward history. Takaichi's speech did not directly address these fundamental concerns. That omission matters.

The approaching APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen in November may provide another reason for Tokyo to lower its diplomatic temperature. Takaichi has expressed an interest in attending. But with bilateral trust so depleted, how, if not whether, she will take part in the gathering remains uncertain.

If Takaichi genuinely wants a stable relationship, she should stop treating reconciliation as a matter of merely paying lip service. Beijing will judge Japan less by its descriptions of China than by its actions toward it. The sensible response is not another balancing act between soothing words and actions that deepen mistrust. It is to translate the stated desire for dialogue and cooperation into concrete actions.