Report highlights enduring complementarity in US-China trade

China's expanding import market continues to offer opportunities for US companies despite shifts in global trade and persistent bilateral economic tensions, according to a new report released in Los Angeles that examines changes in US exports to China and the broader impact of the China International Import Expo (CIIE).

The Evolution of the Structure of US Exports to China and the Extended Effects Index from a CIIE Perspective (2026) was released on Monday at the Bridge to Shanghai: Business Opportunities with China event, part of an overseas outreach series ahead of the ninth CIIE to be held in Shanghai from Nov 5 to 10.

Using 2018, when the first CIIE was held, as its base period, the report tracks changes through 2025 in US exports of goods and services to China and Shanghai. It also evaluates the expo's broader effects in four areas — international procurement, investment promotion, people-to-people exchanges and open cooperation.

The research draws on data from UN Comtrade, Trade Map, the World Trade Organization and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, among other sources.

Li Qingjuan, director of the Think Tank Center at Fudan University's Fanhai International School of Finance and executive dean of the Huaxia Institute for Economic Development, presented the report in Los Angeles.

The study said China's goods imports reached $2.58 trillion in 2025, an increase of 20.9 percent from 2018, while imports of services reached $623 billion, up 18.8 percent over the same period.

The report argues that the composition of trade also points to continuing economic complementarity between the world's two largest economies. It identifies China as the largest overseas market for US soybeans and cotton, and an important market for American integrated circuits and medical devices. It also says the US remains a major source of China's services imports and has maintained a surplus in bilateral services trade.

Those patterns, according to the researchers, indicate that US-China trade is characterized by areas of complementarity even as tariffs, technology restrictions and changes in global sourcing have altered the bilateral commercial landscape.

"CIIE has become a bond for practical China-US exchanges and people-to-people and cultural exchanges," Li said. "CIIE is no longer simply about products entering the Chinese market — it has become a public platform for all companies in the world to exhibit and exchange."

A distinctive part of the study is an index developed to measure what the researchers describe as the CIIE's "spillover effects" on individual countries.

Using international procurement, investment promotion, people-to-people exchanges and open cooperation as four primary indicators, the researchers constructed an evaluation system using indicator weighting and an entropy-based methodology.

The report found that the aggregate US spillover-effect index fluctuated significantly between 2018 and 2025, reaching its highest level of 60.99 in 2019.

The four components, however, did not move uniformly.

International procurement and open cooperation showed greater volatility, according to the report, while investment promotion and people-to-people exchanges experienced smaller fluctuations and demonstrated greater resilience to external shocks.

The researchers said those more stable dimensions provided a continuing foundation for the expo's broader effects even during periods of disruption in bilateral economic relations.

The study also examined nine organizations and companies as case studies of US participation in the CIIE.

Among them is the California Pavilion, organized by the Bay Area Council, which has participated in all eight editions of the expo. More than 20 California companies and institutions have typically participated in each edition, representing manufacturing, healthcare, finance, the green economy and other sectors, according to the report.

US technology companies including Intel and Qualcomm are also cited in the study. Qualcomm has participated in every edition since the expo began in 2018.

Participants at the Los Angeles event said California's longstanding economic connections with China illustrate some of the trade and investment links examined in the report.

Christine Peterson, director of the Office of International Trade and Investment for the mayor of Los Angeles, said the city has participated in the CIIE and Shanghai promotional events for years.

"We remain committed to encouraging the local business community to leverage the CIIE platform to enter the Chinese market and deepen economic ties with Shanghai and other Chinese cities," Peterson said.

Those commercial links are particularly visible at the Port of Los Angeles, a major gateway for trans-Pacific trade.

Marisela Caraballo DiRuggiero, the port's director of trade development, pointed to the movement of containers and other products between China and Los Angeles as well as cooperation between ports on environmental initiatives.

"We have a very strong environmental initiative at the Port of Los Angeles that we partnered with many Chinese ports," she said. "Specifically, Shanghai was one of our first partners, and we just celebrated our 20th anniversary with Shanghai last year."

The ports of Los Angeles and Shanghai announced plans in 2022 for a trans-Pacific green shipping corridor aimed at accelerating the use of lower-carbon vessels, fuels and port technologies along one of the world's busiest container shipping routes.

The report comes as US companies weigh opportunities in China against tariffs, regulatory requirements and changes in global supply chains.

Vlady Cornateanu, chairman and president of the US-China Business Development Company, said American businesses entering China must navigate challenges ranging from distribution and regulatory compliance to the broader bilateral environment.

"Although today's relationship faces new challenges, from tariffs and geopolitical tensions to technology competition, the opportunities remain extraordinary for companies that understand how to navigate this evolving landscape," Cornateanu said.

American companies also continue to participate in the CIIE.

Eric Zheng, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, said in a video address that the chamber has worked with the expo for four consecutive years to facilitate US participation.

The US Food and Agriculture Pavilion at the 2025 CIIE expanded to more than 350 square meters and hosted 19 exhibitors, while the value of memorandums of understanding signed by participating small and medium-sized companies increased 5 percent from the previous year, according to Zheng.

Fang Shijun, vice-president of the Shanghai Association for the Promotion of International Economic and Technical Cooperation, said the continued participation of California organizations and companies demonstrates the depth of commercial connections between the two markets.

"The story of the United States — and California in particular — in the Chinese market continues to unfold at the CIIE," Fang said. "China welcomes more products from California and more US enterprises to enter the market."

renali@chinadailyusa.com