Signs point to intense El Nino

The temperature of a key Pacific Ocean region used to monitor El Nino conditions reached an all-time high in September, underscoring the exceptional intensity of the current weather pattern.

Experts in the Asia-Pacific said the region will need to enhance their preparedness against a strong El Nino and promote energy transition.

The average sea surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 region reached 29.7 C last month, surpassing the peak values of the previous very strong El Nino events of 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16, according to a report released on Oct 12 by the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

El Nino refers to a periodic warming phenomenon of the central and eastern tropical Pacific that disrupts global weather. Against the backdrop of global warming, a strong El Nino is believed to intensify the occurrence of extreme weather events.

For many months, global meteorological agencies have monitored the current El Nino, which could be the strongest ever, and warned of the risk of extreme weather events.

China's National Climate Center (NCC) also said on Oct 9 that a "super" El Nino event with warming concentrated in the eastern Pacific formed in September, which is expected to become the strongest such event since systematic monitoring began.

NCC Chief Forecaster Zhao Junhu said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to continue rising over the next three months, peaking in late autumn to early winter, according to Xinhua News Agency.

In South Korea, after heatwaves killed dozens of people this summer, Seoul's daytime temperature reached 30.1 C on Oct 12, October's highest-ever recorded temperature since meteorological observations began, according to broadcaster SBS.

The Korea Meteorological Administration said significant temperature variations could be seen this winter partly due to the intensified El Nino.

Japan reported unusual levels of rainfall in September and October, with Tokyo experiencing a record 35 consecutive days of rain, the longest continuous stretch of precipitation in the capital since records began in 1886.

In Indonesia, the worst wildfire in decades is also being fuelled by the "super" El Nino. Hundreds of families have been displaced, and smog has spread to neighboring countries such as Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines.

"Recent weather patterns confirm that we should brace for the impact of a 'super' El Nino," said Kim Joo-jin, CEO at Solutions for Our Climate, a climate advocacy organization based in Seoul.

Across Asia, Kim told China Daily that this means a higher risk of extreme heat, droughts, heavy rainfall, and wildfires.

Kim said the strong El Nino is a wake-up call to accelerate climate action, including moving away from fossil fuels.

In South Korea, for example, Kim said extreme heat underscores the need to strengthen climate resilience, with accelerating the energy transition as the key.

With an intensified El Nino, Sheeba Chenoli, associate professor in meteorology and climatology at Universiti Malaya, told China Daily that shifts in atmospheric circulation and moisture patterns could be seen this year.

"The major concern is that all these impacts are adding up with the existing stress we have due to climate change," said Sheeba, noting the record high sea surface temperature reported in September is "an important warning signal".

Sheeba said cooperation among member states in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is important in terms of shared monitoring, seasonal forecasts, early warnings and the implementation of existing agreements as climate-related events and impact could travel across borders.

"El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon and we cannot control it … however, what we can do is that we can reduce the vulnerability if we prepare our communities and ecosystem better," said Sheeba.

Global temperatures also reached 1.63 C above the pre-industrial level last month, making it the second-warmest September ever recorded, according to the European Union's climate monitor.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, adopted at the United Nations COP21 climate conference, countries agreed to keep the global average temperature rise below 2 C above pre-industrial levels, while aiming to limit the increase to 1.5 C.

"We are in a new run of months above 1.5 degrees Celsius, and with a strong El Nino still intensifying it is likely to last into 2027," said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, in a statement.

"Crossing the Paris Agreement's long-term limit is only a matter of time," said Buontempo. "How far we overshoot, and for how long, is still up to us."