UN report warns of widening gap in emissions cuts needed to limit global warming

Countries must cut greenhouse gas emissions by an average annual rate of 5.7 percent between 2025 and 2035 to minimize global warming overshoot and return temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme or UNEP.

The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, released on Wednesday, says emissions must fall by 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035 and 69 percent by 2040, relative to 2025 levels, to achieve the lowest possible overshoot scenario.

The scenario projects peak warming of 1.7–1.8 C around mid-century, followed by a return to or below 1.5 C by 2100, with about a 50 percent probability.

"Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a message on the report.

Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, warned that every additional fraction of a degree and year of warming above 1.5 C increases climate risks, including floods, heatwaves and wildfires.

"We must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5 C by the end of the century. This is possible," she said.

The report projects that warming could reach 2.8 C this century if current policies continue. Full implementation of countries' Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs would limit warming to 2.6 C, while achieving all NDCs and additional net-zero targets would limit it to 2.1 C.

The lowest possible overshoot pathway would also require removing and permanently storing about 320 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere over the course of this century. However, socioeconomic and technological challenges make the feasibility of achieving this uncertain.

The report also highlights progress in renewable energy, noting that global renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, while solar photovoltaic deployment has grown seven times faster.

Sustaining these trends through additional policies could help accelerate emissions reductions and bring the world closer to its climate goals.