Palestinians see little hope in Israeli election

KHAN YOUNIS — In Gaza and the West Bank, many Palestinians were less focused on who would win Israel's election than on whether anything would really change.

According to preliminary results, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies nor the array of parties seeking to unseat him secured a majority in parliament.

Israel's Channel 12 reported that after counting all regular ballots, Netanyahu's bloc was projected to win 53 seats, compared with 48 for the opposition bloc led by Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot and 19 for Arab-led parties.

None of the main blocs were projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset, Israel's parliament.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Central Elections Committee chief asked the Shin Bet intelligence service to investigate alleged foreign interference. The letter noted alleged funding by "foreign entities against the Israeli interest", but did not elaborate on the validity of the claims.

It requested findings within the week. Israeli law requires election results to be certified by Wednesday.

"We fear these elections could bring an even worse leader," said Huda al-Houli, a displaced resident of Khan Younis in southern Gaza.

Such an outcome, she said, would only bring "more destruction and devastation" to the Palestinian territory.

Still, Houli said she hoped a more "human voice" would emerge in Israeli society and demand an end to the conflict, regardless of who forms the next government.

In Ramallah, in the West Bank, Ahmed Awad, 67, was equally skeptical. "Whatever the result, and even if the politicians change, I don't think there will be any radical or dramatic shift in policies toward the Palestinian-Israeli conflict," he told AFP.

The election comes after years of right-wing and far-right rule marked by the conflict in Gaza and rising settler violence in the West Bank.

For Netanyahu, fighting for his political survival, several paths remain open, renewing his alliance with the far right, building a broader coalition or facing yet another political deadlock.

Far-right Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has already signaled that, if the current coalition survives, he would seek the defense portfolio and push for the expulsion of Gaza's population.

Not everyone has given up hope.

"Whatever happens, it will surely be better than what we've lived through in recent years," said Abdallah Abu Rahma, 54, from Ramallah.

But if Netanyahu remains in office, he added, "any coalition he forms, he will continue down the same path".

A government led by Eisenkot, a former army chief, could rein in the influence of the pro-settlement far right, said researcher Beth Oppenheim of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

It could also ease pressure on the Palestinian Authority and take a more flexible approach on aid and a ceasefire in Gaza.

But she warned against expecting too much. There would be "nothing transformative", she said, and certainly no major shift on Palestinian statehood or the peace process, issues that have largely disappeared from Israeli political debate since Oct 7.

A renewed Netanyahu coalition with far-right partners would likely mean more of the same, including settlement expansion and impunity for settler violence, Oppenheim added.

"I think we need to have quite low expectations when it comes to seeing any major changes in policy from a different government," she said.

Even a Netanyahu defeat could leave Palestinians worse off in the short term, argued Yousef Munayyer, head of the Palestine-Israel program at Arab Center Washington DC.

"There is every reason for Palestinians to be concerned," he said.

Eisenkot himself served in Israel's wartime cabinet during the Gaza offensive, Munayyer noted.

In the West Bank, violence could rise if the far right loses power, with settlers potentially acting out against a new government, he explained.

"It's important to understand that most settler violence in the West Bank is structural. It's not about the government in charge," Munayyer said.

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