Super El Nino to bring volatile winter across nation

China is expected to experience an unusually volatile winter, with more frequent cold waves and heightened risks of heavy snowfall and freezing rain, as a super El Nino event develops in the Pacific, the China Meteorological Administration said on Tuesday.

The El Nino event developed into the strongest on record by October and is expected to peak in late autumn or early winter and have a significant impact on China's climate this winter and next spring, according to Gao Rong, deputy director of the National Climate Center.

"During the 2026-27 winter, temperatures across most of the country are forecast to be near or above the seasonal average," Gao said.

The season is likely to feature a colder first half and a warmer second half, with frequent sharp temperature swings in December and January, he said.

Despite the overall warmer outlook, cold waves are expected to occur slightly more frequently than usual, Gao added.

Northern China faces an elevated risk of sharp temperature drops and heavy snowfall, while southern regions could see more frequent episodes of low temperatures, rain, snow and freezing rain.

Overall precipitation is forecast to be above average nationwide, with widespread heavy snowfall expected across much of northern China.

In the south, above-average precipitation is expected, particularly in parts of East and Central China, South China and Southwest China. These areas also face the risk of intermittent cold, snowy and icy conditions.

China is expected to be affected by four cold air outbreaks in November and their intensity is forecast to be stronger in the first half of the month and weaker later, Gao said.

Cold air activity in northern China is expected to be periodically strong in November, posing risks of temporary low temperatures, strong winds and frost, he said.

Above-average precipitation is forecast in parts of North China, Northwest China and the Xizang autonomous region, raising the risk of significant rain and snow events.

Gao urged agricultural and livestock operators to strengthen measures to protect facilities and animals against cold and strong winds. Transport, energy and power authorities should also prepare emergency response plans for low temperature-, rain — and snow-related disasters.