Major changes in US foreign policy 'unlikely'

As a decisive blue wave sweeps the United States in the midterm elections, with the Democrats winning clear majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, analysts expect stronger scrutiny of the administration led by US President Donald Trump, but noted that the shift in congressional power may not necessarily effect major changes in the US' foreign policy.

As of Wednesday, Democrats and independents who caucus with them had secured at least 54 seats in the 100-member Senate, including traditionally Republican strongholds such as Texas, South Carolina and Kansas, while counting continued in some states.

In the 435-member House, Democrats had already won 240 seats to cross the majority threshold, even though some races had not yet been called.

The newly elected Congress will be sworn in on Jan 3.

In a discussion hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs on Wednesday, Daniel Drezner, a professor at Tufts University in Massachusetts, linked the US' foreign policy and the economic concerns of voters.

"Americans fundamentally do not care about foreign policy, unless it affects their bottom line," Drezner said, as the discussion repeatedly veered between the impact of the Iran war and the increasing cost of living.

Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC, wrote on the institute's website on Wednesday that the Iran war played an unusually important electoral role because voters had to bear the brunt of high energy prices.

In his first comments on Wednesday after Democrats pulled off a striking election performance, Trump largely agreed with Vice-President JD Vance, who publicly ruminated on the Iran war being a catastrophe for Republicans.

"It's largely true because it drove gasoline up a little bit," Trump said, while Vance said in a post on social media that the "real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone".

While the newly elected Congress is likely to prepare a vast oversight agenda to rein in the Trump administration, Jack Midgley, an adjunct associate professor at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, told China Daily that the US president's veto power and broad executive authority would limit the Democrats' ability to enact major legislation. Congressional investigations could take precedence over lawmaking, he said.

Drezner, from Tufts University, drew a distinction between the Democratic Congress elected in 2006, which failed to prevent then president George W. Bush's troop surge in Iraq, and the Democratic Congress elected in 1974, which built on Watergate-era reforms passed by its predecessor to help sustain and enforce stronger limits on executive power.

The professor said that he expects the newly elected Congress to land somewhere between those two precedents.

Experts from the Council on Foreign Relations in New York noted that Democrats would chair committees, exercise leverage over federal spending and, through the Senate, decide whether to confirm senior administration nominees.

Pierre Yared, a senior fellow at the CFR, said that Democratic control of Congress is unlikely to unilaterally change Trump's tariff policy, because the president is exercising congressionally delegated authority.

Drezner, however, indicated the possibility of a bipartisan action, because some Republicans also oppose Trump's tariffs.

Meanwhile, fiscal disputes could prove consequential beyond Washington. Josh Lipsky and Bart Piasecki of the Atlantic Council warned in an article published on Wednesday that negotiations on federal spending and the debt ceiling in 2027 could create uncertainty for US financial markets and the global economy.

Reflecting on other areas of foreign policy, Christopher Preble, a senior fellow and director at the Stimson Center in Washington, called on lawmakers to use oversight and funding powers to press for an end to the Iran war.

Leslie Vinjamuri, president and CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, said that Trump could pursue diplomatic agreements, including on Ukraine, to build a presidential legacy at this critical juncture of his term, rather than becoming more confrontational abroad.

Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the CFR, noted that the US' Asian allies could expect and welcome stronger congressional oversight, but they should not expect immediate tariff relief given Trump's veto power.

Andrew Hyde, a senior fellow and director at the Stimson Center, warned European governments not to count on Democratic control of Congress bringing back the old transatlantic relationship.

For Democrats, gaining control is only the beginning of a tough test. Vinjamuri, from the Chicago Council, said what truly matters to voters is whether the party can help deliver lower food, housing and gasoline prices.

Jan Yumul in Hong Kong and Cui Haipei in Dubai, UAE, contributed to this story.