Price data send out soothing signals

By Chen Jia (China Daily) Updated: 2013-09-10 07:00

Zhu expects full-year CPI figures to show a 2.6 percent growth, with a moderate boost to 3 percent in the fourth quarter, lower than the government's target of 3.5 percent in 2013.

"This provides room for the government to focus on stabilizing growth and pushing economic restructuring measures," he added.

Premier Li Keqiang wrote in an article for the Financial Times on Monday that the nation's "economy will maintain its sustained and healthy growth and China will stay on the path of reform and opening up."

The bullish economic data and the Premier's confidence boosted the Chinese stock market, which hit a nine-month high on Monday.

Yu Qiumei, a senior economist at the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the economic improvement was due to the government's efforts since the second quarter, which helped to facilitate the industrial restructuring process and maintain stable growth.

"Obviously, the overall economy is on a steady rebound trend," she said.

Ma Xiaoping, a Chinese economist at HSBC Holdings, said on Monday that some initial signs have already indicated an improvement in domestic demand, including the improved manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, as well as export data.

"We expect to see more upside surprises in growth data as recent policy stimulus measures filter through the economy," Ma said.

The National Bureau of Statistics will release the August industrial output, fixed-asset investment and consumption figures on Tuesday.

Since the second quarter, the National Development and Reform Commission - the nation's top economic planner - has been releasing guidelines to boost investment in the railway, infrastructure, environment protection and energy sectors, which is seen as an important factor to stabilize growth.

But aggressive stimulus measures are unlikely to be seen in coming months, as rising property prices, local government debt and the expansion of the credit-to-GDP ratio remain concerns for the country's leaders.

"We continue to expect prudent monetary policy with a slight bias towards tighter liquidity, as measured by total social financing, especially as economic growth starts to show signs of stabilization," said Chang Jian, a senior economist in China with Barclays Capital.