Future far from disturbing

The Chinese mainland's domestic consumption was about 22.47 trillion yuan ($3.57 trillion) in 2011, only one-third of the US. But the Party has vowed to double the country's average personal income by 2020 from the 2010 level to increase people's purchasing power to 64 trillion yuan and make consumption the strongest driving force of the national economy.

The ongoing large-scale urbanization will increase the consumer population as well as demand, because an increase of 1 percentage point in the urbanization rate can raise the national GDP by 2 to 2.5 percentage points.

Since it will take at least 20 years for the Chinese mainland to increase its current urbanization rate of about 55 percent to the international average of 70 percent, more than 300 million Chinese will move from villages to cities during the intervening years and boost domestic demand further.

Besides, according to the UN, China will continue to enjoy its demographic dividend for the next 20 years. The country enjoys the demographic dividend because of not only the number of laborers, but also the quality of the workforce.

China's excellent infrastructure will be the foundation of its growth in the future and help integrate it further into global industrial chain. More importantly, China is much more open than its Western counterparts in building a plural and open economic system, and seldom uses the "threat to national security" as an excuse for trade protectionism, which will help it in its mission.

About 78 percent of the enterprises that responded to a survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China said they see China as one of the top three places in the world in terms of business environment, with 92 percent of them planning to increase their investments in the country.

Moreover, China's long-term stable political and social environment is in stark contrast to many other economies, and makes it an ideal destination for both investors and tourists.

Third, China's development is an opportunity, not a threat, for the rest of the world. Were it not for China, the Asia financial crisis in the 1990s and global financial crisis could have been much more devastating. It's a well-known fact that China's robust demand has helped many countries overcome the global financial crisis.

According to the IMF, the Chinese mainland is now the largest or second largest trade partner of 78 economies. On average, it has imported about $750 billion worth of goods annually in the 10 years since its entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001, creating more than 14 million jobs in the exporting economies. In those 10 years, foreign enterprises remitted $261.7 billion in net profits from the nation, with a yearly increase of 30 percent.

The Chinese mainland is estimated to import $10 trillion worth of goods from 2010 to 2015. And the NIC says it will contribute about one-third of world economic growth by 2025, much more than any other economy.

China is also an important power committed to maintaining world peace. History tells us that it has been one of the most peaceful nations, and has consistently adhered to the policy of peaceful coexistence and opposed resolving disputes through force.

Peaceful development is not only China's solemn promise to the world, but also a rational choice. It is the path of win-win cooperation, and mutual trust and respect, which is in line with today's global trend and the interests of people around the world.

The author is a Beijing-based scholar of international relations.

(China Daily 12/29/2012 page5)

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