The macro-environment and risk analysis

Risks of financial systems inefficiencies, failures and lack of financing capital;

Hard controlling diseases spreading in human, animal or plants; 

Risks of over usage of non-renewable resources (oil, some fertilizers);

Water shortages and excess causing droughts and flooding (disasters); 

Risks of temperature changes in some regions, with extreme situations;

Risks of increasing carbon emissions and its effects over pollution;

Risks of potable water availability; 

Risks to the planet based on asteroids collision and other threats;

Food safety risks due to poor management of food supply chains;

Natural risks of earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes and other extreme events.

Within the socio-cultural system, we tend to consider as points of attention:

Fast changes in consumption behavior;

Risks of consumerist movements;

Risks of environmental movements;

Risks of nationalistic movements;

Risks of food security concerns increasing inefficiencies in non adequate producing areas;

Food waste concerns;

Risks of non-tolerance in some aggressive religious movements;

Risks of increase in xenophobic movements;

Others based on socio-cultural variables.

Finally, within the global technological system, we tend to consider:

Risks in digital systems operation (web based companies operational systems and Government systems);

Risks in data stealing, data frauds and advances over personal intimacy;

Risks in viral communication exposure of individuals, companies and Governments;

Risks of not controlling new high tech innovations, such as genetically modified, nanotech and others that may get out of control;

Others based on technology.

Based on these risks discussed above, the question to be answered is what are the possibilities of these very macro-environmental variables happen, and if they occur, how the company would be affected. Finally, to think if there are acts (projects) to adapt to this changing environment?

The author is professor of strategic planning and food chains at the School of Economics and Business, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil (www.favaneves.org) and international speaker. Author of 25 books published in 8 countries and in China, “The World on the Tongue”.

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