Intense campaign season awaits Malaysian voters

Malaysia is gearing up for an intense political campaign season, with a range of coalitions and former top leaders vying for power in a general election next month.

Ten days after Ismail Sabri Yaakob in his role as prime minister announced the dissolution of parliament, Election Commission Chairman Abdul Ghani Salleh said last week that Malaysia's general election will be held on Nov 19. Ismail Sabri is now serving in a caretaker capacity as early jockeying among politicians gets underway.

Nominations for candidates must be received by Nov 5, paving way for a 14-day campaigning period.

The United Malays National Organization, or UMNO, which dominates the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, or BN, is seen as the strongest party going into the election. UMNO President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is fielding Ismail Sabri as the party's candidate for prime minister if the coalition wins.

Despite its strong position, BN is facing tough competition from other parties. Its former ally, the Parti Islam Se-Malaysia, has joined hands with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia to form the Perikatan Nasional coalition. The opposition Pakatan Harapan, which ended BN's 60-year reign in the 2018 elections, has scheduled a convention late in the evening on Thursday to prepare for the general elections — the 15th to be staged in Malaysia.

Mahathir Mohamad, a former prime minister who led the Pakatan Harapan coalition during the historic 2018 polls, will run again but under a different party following his split with the outfit.

Mahathir, who represents the northern Malaysian district of Langkawi, will defend his parliamentary seat under the Gerakan Tanah Air coalition. Mahathir has said in media interviews that he is willing to take the reins of his nation again "if there's a request".

Analysts are expecting a hung parliament, with no coalition seen winning a simple majority.

"Mahathir is a spent force in this election," said Wong Chin Huat, a political expert at Sunway University in Kuala Lumpur. Wong said the GTA, which was only formed in August, will be contesting in an "overcrowded market of Malay-Muslim nationalist voters".

Hafidzi Razali, senior analyst at risk consultancy BowerGroupAsia, does not expect the Pakatan Harapan to be able to replicate its victory in the 2018 elections.

Hafidzi said a high voter turnout and a united front are required in order for the opposition to cause an upset next month. Meanwhile, the monsoon season might deter people from going to polling booths, resulting in lower voter turnout.

"These two factors may swing the favor to Barisan Nasional," he said.

But Wong said the monsoon season might be a deciding factor in the elections. He said flooding will affect many constituencies or even cause a postponement.