US pushed off center stage in West Asia

Without much fanfare, the United States is slowly being maneuvered off center stage in West Asia. With the US having dominated geopolitical primacy in the region for decades, its failure to deliver security has seen a "vacuum for peace" emerge. Into this vacuum has stepped, tentatively and cautiously, the Arab League, supported by China and Russia.

A new style of regional, and even global, statecraft is emerging and it recognizes that indivisible and mutual security is achieved by dialogue, through which consensus is secured. This ethos contrasts starkly with the "gun barrel" unilateral approach that has been the hallmark of American primacy, particularly in the past 30 years.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US straddled the world stage as the unrivaled hegemon. Paradoxically, it was during this period, when the US was most secure, that the US embarked on its most intense and sustained period of military intervention. An ethos of "kinetic first", a foreign policy approach that prioritizes military action and the use of force, dominated US foreign policy. According to Duffy Toft and Sidita Kushi, in their 2022 book Dying by the Sword, between 1991 and 2019 the US initiated on average 3.7 military interventions per year, more than the 2.4 per year average initiated between 1946 and 1990.

According to the Costs of War project, these interventions have caused an estimated 3.6 million to 3.8 million indirect deaths in the US' post-9/11 war zones, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. A further 38 million people or more have been displaced.

West Asia has borne the brunt of this human tragedy. The eruption of hostilities in Palestine is another episode in the long tawdry record of settler aggression, occupation, military aggression and attempted genocide on the part of the US-backed Israelis. Israel's military has killed over 36,000 people, the overwhelming majority being civilians, and over 81,000 people have been wounded as of the end of May, according to health authorities in Gaza. The ruthlessness of Israel's military action killings has led to the International Court of Justice to conclude that Israel's actions are prima facie genocidal.

US President Joe Biden urged Israel not to press ahead with its attack on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, but Israel did so anyway.

Despite the US administration's eye-on-the-election posturing, it has continued to provide missiles and other military and financial support to Israel amid the overwhelming global and regional opposition to what Israel is doing. The US has also vetoed efforts to bring a ceasefire resolution through the United Nations Security Council. That Israel's campaign has caused untold human hardship is recognized by most countries; indeed, the US has conceded that humanitarian aid was needed. In the face of blockages to humanitarian assistance entering Gaza, the US even built a pier, which was washed away but later reconnected, for aid to be delivered from the sea. But the US has been playing catchup with humanitarian aid for the besieged Palestinian civilians while it has been on the front foot supplying Israel with military aid. That bitter irony has not been lost on observers in the region.

In January 2024, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi floated the idea of an international peace conference to bring gravitas to the table, in an effort to stop the carnage and work toward a lasting peace. Progressively, diplomatic efforts through back channels and through the forums of the UN have seen the building of a head of steam behind the idea. The Arab League in mid-May endorsed such a conference. The King of Bahrain embarked on a diplomatic shuttle mission to progress the idea. He visited Russia last week, and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The King of Bahrain joined other heads of state from West Asia in Beijing on May 30, to take part in the 10th Ministerial Conference of the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum. There's little doubt that the question of Palestine was a key topic of discussion. In his address to the conference, President Xi Jinping made it clear that China supports the convening of an international peace conference, as such a meeting would have the necessary authority to overcome barriers and inertia toward resolving the conflict and to secure peace by way of a two-state solution based on 1967 boundaries.

China's style and approach to statecraft was already on show last year, when it played an active role in facilitating the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. More recently, it has hosted the two Palestinian factions for talks aimed at a reconciliation conducive to creating the conditions that would make an international peace conference viable.

China has also proposed a framework that would contribute to the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. That was in early 2023.While it was rejected by the Western powers at the time, the lesson from the West Asia experience is that resolution of conflicts takes time and effort. Creating the conditions necessary for parties to come together and be willing to enter into dialogue with sincerity doesn't happen overnight; and it certainly doesn't happen at the "end of a gun barrel".

China's approach recognizes that conflicts are only resolved when the parties involved can become part of the solution. The US and the collective West generally seem to hold the view that solutions can somehow be unilaterally imposed.

The proposed international peace conference on the question of Palestine stands in stark contrast to the Ukraine conference promoted by the collective West, which will be held in Switzerland. In the latter case, Russia has not been invited. It is evidently expected to accept a fait accompli proposition.

Enough is enough. Decades of US domination of West Asia's geopolitics have delivered war and destruction. The unilateral methods of the US haven't worked. The Arab powers have now coalesced around the new process and approach, which is focused on getting an international peace conference together. Such a conference in effect pushes the US off center stage, and could mark the beginning of a new era of consensus-based regional statecraft.

The author is adjunct professor at Queensland University of Technology and a senior fellow at Taihe Institute. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.