No-confidence vote may see French govt collapse

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier's 3-month-old government is most likely to collapse this week after the opposition parties launched a no-confidence vote over his pushing through a social security budget in the parliament without a vote.

Barnier on Monday used the controversial Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, known to many as the nuclear option, to force the adoption of next year's social security budget plan when it was obvious that he could not have the majority support for the budget in the National Assembly, the lower house of the French parliament.

Opposition parties from the left and far right were outraged by the move and have threatened the Barnier government with a no-confidence vote set for Wednesday.

The left-wing coalition New Popular Front, or NFP, which has the most seats in the National Assembly, and the far-right National Rally, or RN, of Marine Le Pen, whose alliance has the third-most seats, have already announced their intentions to file no-confidence motions, respectively.

Jordan Bardella, president of the RN, said on Monday morning before the parliament meeting that his party would vote to topple Barnier's government over its proposed budget "barring a last-minute miracle".

"The budget presented by the government is a budget of punishment that will weaken the purchasing power of our compatriots," said Bardella, whose RN has moderated its stance on several issues in recent years.

The Barnier government has been trying to curry favor in the past few months with the RN in order to survive in the vulnerable political situation.

The European Commission last week approved Barnier's budget plans, which aim to bring France's deficit down to 5 percent of GDP after reaching more than 6 percent this year.

A simple majority, or 289 votes, is required to topple the government in the 577-seat National Assembly. The NFP has 188 seats while the RN alliance has 142 seats.

Ding Chun, director of the Center for European Studies at Fudan University, said French President Emmanuel Macron has relied on appeasing the far right by moving his policies toward the right, but has now pushed them to the opposite.

'Hard to survive'

"It's hard for Barnier government to survive this time," he said.

If the government is toppled this week, it would be the first successful no-confidence vote since 1962, during the years of President Charles de Gaulle.

Barnier's austerity budget would raise 20 billion euros ($21 billion) through raising taxes while cutting 40 billion euros in government spending. But a fall of his government means that the French government may go into 2025 without a budget plan.

If the Barnier government collapses this week, Macron, whose presidency will last until 2027, can restart talks on nominating a new prime minister and government. But he can't call for a fresh parliamentary election since he already had snap elections months ago. According to the French Constitution, he cannot call a new snap election until next summer.

There have also been mounting calls for Macron to resign to make way for a new government, something that he has rejected.

"It's an idea that could start gaining traction," Benjamin Morel, a constitutional expert at Paris Pantheon-Assas University, told Politico.

"Marine Le Pen may start saying that she will topple every single government until Macron resigns," he said.

chenweihua@chinadaily.com.cn