EU prepares for prolonged energy crisis

The European Union has warned of a prolonged energy crisis following the United States and Israel's war on Iran, which has added approximately 14 billion euros ($16 billion) to the EU's energy import bill.

A long-running conflict will intensify global competition for supplies to outlast the Middle East conflict, the EU's Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen warned, as the bloc's energy ministers weighed measures to shield households from high prices.

In a letter to EU energy ministers ahead of an emergency meeting on Tuesday, Jorgensen urged governments to make "timely preparations".

"Nobody knows how long the crisis will be, but I think it is very important to underline that it will not be short," said Jorgensen.

EU oil and gas prices have risen by 60 and 70 percent, respectively, since the conflict started a month ago, he noted.

"Thirty days of conflict have already added 14 billion euros to the (EU's) fossil fuel import bill. Even if there was a peace tomorrow, there would still be consequences. Because energy infrastructure in the (Middle East) region has been and continuously is being ruined by the war," he added.

EU officials have said Europe's immediate oil and gas supplies remain secure in the short-term, because the bloc gets most of its crude oil and natural gas from suppliers outside the Middle East, including Norway and the United States.

However, Jorgensen said Brussels is particularly concerned in the short-term about Europe's supply of refined products, such as jet fuel and diesel.

The letter said governments should avoid measures that would increase fuel consumption, restrict trade in petroleum products, or discourage output at European refineries.

"Member states are encouraged to defer any non-emergency refinery maintenance," it added.

Jorgensen said the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, is preparing a "toolbox" of measures that will be unveiled "soon" to support businesses and households, including relaxing certain state-aid rules.

"We are in a situation that might worsen, where indeed demand-reduction is necessary," he said, adding that he encouraged countries to "do whatever you can … to get renewable energy online".

One energy geopolitics specialist said supply shock effects will be swift and costly.

Speaking to France 24, Francesco Sassi, assistant professor at the University of Oslo and an expert in energy geopolitics, said the war in Iran has triggered "the largest oil supply disruption in history".

He added that "what is really concerning is that national governments will start to unilaterally take action, subsidizing energy consumption or act to secure energy supplies, and this will inevitably increase the cost of natural gas and oil in Europe".

On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump told reporters the US "will be leaving (Iran) very soon" and that US military action could end as soon as in "two or three weeks".

Separately, Trump warned allies including France and the UK that the US "won't be there to help you anymore".

"All of those countries that can't get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you," Trump wrote on social media. "No 1, buy from the US, we have plenty, and No 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT.

"You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the USA won't be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us.

"Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!"

It was confirmed on Tuesday that the UK's King Charles III and Queen Camilla will meet Trump when they undertake a state visit to the US at the end of this month.

jonathan@mail.chinadailyuk.com